Can the GOP retake the Senate?

History has shown that the midterm elections have benefitted the opposing party and this year looks to be more of the same. With the recent animosity toward Democrats, as well as the failures of Martha Coakley, Jon Corzine, and Creigh Deeds, the future looks bright for the GOP. There has been talk that the Republicans may even retake the Senate. With eight months until elections, anything can happen.

Let’s take a look at what needs to happen for the Republicans to retake the Senate. Republicans need to pickup ten Democratic seats without losing any of their own in order to reach the majority level of 51 senators. All though this may seem like a long shot, victories of this margin have happened before.

In order for Republicans to get the majority in the midterms, they must retain all of their seats. Of their eighteen seats up for reelection in November, a few may have tight races. Kit Bond’s retirement makes Missouri a toss-up. The vacancies caused by the retirements of New Hampshire senator Judd Gregg, Ohio senator George Voinovich, and Kentucky senator Jim Bunning could mean potential, if doubtful, losses for Republicans. For Republicans to retake the Senate, they must not lose any of their current seats.

The Republicans need to win ten of the Democrats’ eighteen seats that are up for re-election in the fall. The recent retirements of Evan Bayh and Byron Dorgan make Indiana and North Dakota are likely Republican pickups, while the retirement of Chris Dodd has squashed Republican chances in Connecticut. The former seats of Barack Obama and Joe Biden are also open seats, as interim senators Roland Burris and Ted Kaufman have decided not to seek reelection. The Illinois seat is viewed as a tossup, as moderate Republican Mark Kirk will face off against Alexi Giannoulias in the heavily Democratic state. However, the open seat in Delaware is viewed to be a likely Republican gain, as Joe Biden’s son, Beau, decided not to challenge Representative Mike Castle for the seat. Democrats’ retirements should result in three or four Republican gains.

Some incumbent Democrats may do their party some good if they decide to retire, like Dodd. Arkansas senator Blanche Lincoln, Pennsylvania senator Arlen Specter, and Majority Leader Harry Reid face uphill battles against relatively unknown or underfunded Republicans. Republicans have very good chances to capture these three seats, as well as decent chances to win Michael Bennet’s seat in Colorado. These four races should all turn red by November.

Overall, nine democratic seats should turn into seven or eight Republican pickups. The other half of the Democrats’ seats up for reelection is either safe holds or unlikely Republican pickups. Senators Chuck Schumer of New York, Daniel Inouye of Hawaii, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Ron Wyden of Oregon are virtually guaranteed reelection, whereas Patty Murray of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin could face tough challenges if more prominent Republicans decide to challenge them. Barbara Boxer of California and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York have small but noticeable leads over their Republican challengers, but could potentially be vulnerable.

If elections were held today, therefore, chances are Republicans would pick up seven or eight seats and this would leave the Democrats with either 51 or 52 seats. With plenty of time until the elections, anything could happen. If we do have more of the same, a Republican majority in the Senate seems unlikely, but it is certainly possible.