Not Their Seats Anyways…

As Brian Beutler at the Talking Points Memo rightly points out, in the build up to what will no doubt be a mid-term thumpin’ for the Dems, two points ought to be kept in mind:

“To most experts, the dynamic driving this election is the economy. But another factor is likely to exacerbate Dem losses: They’re coming off not one, but two successive wave elections, meaning they have plenty of seats to lose, and many of their most vulnerable members are also their least seasoned, and least familiar to constituents.”

The economy is hurting politicians—all politicians, no doubt—but particularly those politicians that can be blamed for it. Needless to say, therefore, previously elected officials up for re-election ought to be, gently put, concerned. The outcomes of a sizeable number of next week’s elections, however, are likely to be determined by a more straight forward demographic destiny. Democrats in office throughout the country are living on borrowed time. They are sitting in seats that are not their own.

For reasons largely outside of the Democrats control—read: the war in Iraq and Obama’s capacity to bring out voters—Dems have won big in each of the last two congressional elections. It only makes sense, then, that at least some of those seats would, for one reason or another, ultimately make their way back to the GOP. The economy is bad and should surely tip results the Republican’s way. Most probably, though, things would be headed in that direction regardless.