Pulled from Both Sides

Over the last few months you may have become weary of the cheap shots and the devious tactics that American politicians use to gain an advantage over the other party. But bad as they are, at least they aren’t sending each other to jail, a moved recently seen in Ukraine that has serious implications for their relations with all of Europe and Russia.

Enter Yulia Tymoshenko (pronunciation). She used her magnanimous charisma and strong public support to launch herself in Ukrainian politics. She became the prime minister in 2007 but was voted out in 2010. However, she remains the head of her party, the aptly named Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the second largest party in the parliament. With her halo of braided hair, she still remains one of the most distinctive public figures in Ukraine.

Then Viktor Yanukovych, her main political rival, and the current president of Ukraine, decided to arrest her. He alleged that Tymoshenko overstepped her power during a gas dispute in 2009 between Ukraine and Russia. Her supporters said that the charges amount to nothing more than a few missing stamps on the agreement, a bureaucratic maneuver to hinder Tymoshenko and her party. These allegations came just after Tymoshenko barely lost her bid for the presidency. Of course, Yanukovych and his party did not expect Tymoshenko’s response. She used the trial as any good politician should, as a staging ground for a scathing attack on her opponents. Turning it into a kangaroo court, she humiliated the prosecutors’ witnesses. Due to her response, Tymoshenko is being held for contempt of court. On October 11, 2011, the court ruled against her, sentencing her to seven years in prison, also banning her from holding public office for three years. If the ruling is upheld after her appeal, she would be barred her from the next presidential election in which Yanukovych will be a contender.

However, Yanukovych seems unaware of the Pandora’s Box he has opened. Foreign diplomats have increased their pressure on him to release Tymoshenko. Elmar Brok, a German Member of the European Parliament, even threatened to not pass a free trade agreement between Europe and Ukraine if Tymoshenko isn’t released. Yanukovych, in response to the political threats and pressure, has agreed to try to change the law so as to decimalize her actions. If she is later acquitted, the situation in the country might be mitigated, but there has already been lasting damage to Ukraine’s image in Europe.

It seems appropriate that the main focus of this trial is a Russia-Ukraine gas dispute, a frequent point of contention. Ukraine has a torn identity between being an old Soviet nation and trying to emerge as a new European State. Under recent events though, it has been pushing away both sides. Russian leaders perceived Tymoshenko’s arrest as an indirect attack on them, an unintended consequence. Europe decried Yanukovych over his Pro-Russia tactics and the lack of democracy that seem pervasive in the country. Even the thought of Ukraine joining the EU is years away, and the recent events have only delayed it.

Yulia Tymoshenko, on the other hand, is clearly of the Pro-Europe flavor. As a consequence, Russian leaders refuse to re-negotiate with her on issues like natural gas contracts, even when they clearly disadvantage Ukraine as we have seen in the last few years. She may yet be the link Ukraine needs to re-enter Europe’s radar as a serious business and political partner. The problem lies with the significant portion of the country that does not agree with her and instead sides with Yanukovych.

Being torn between the two worlds only hurts Ukraine, and it is obvious that Yanukovych is not capable of playing both sides. The arrest of Tymoshenko is clearly a symptom of a larger problem. With pipelines and EU capital markets on the line, the next few years for Ukraine are pivotal.