Mr. Mahmoud Has An Idea

As Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was making a whirlwind tour of foreign dignitaries to persuade them against supporting Palestine’s inclusion in the United Nations, President Mahmoud Abbas was contented in watching the very first seedlings of his new diplomacy take root. Over the past 60 years, the Palestinian government, in its many forms, has fought to have its voice heard in the international community. To say the least, this effort has been hindered by Israel and its staunch ally, the United States, which has established a policy of automatic opposition to any Palestinian move toward sovereignty. The United States uses its influence and substantial leverage among its allies—and the international community at large—to foster an atmosphere that has made it difficult to buck the status quo of being against Palestinian aspirations. One only needs to look as far as laws enacted under President Clinton in 1994 which bans American funding of any UN organization that recognizes Palestine. As we have seen recently, the United States intends to make use of this law, withdrawing $60 million of funding to UNESCO after its membership overwhelmingly voted in favor of accepting Palestine as a full member.

And herein lies the cusp of Abbas’s plan. Since 1949, Palestinians have tried every tactic in the book to gain independence. This has ranged from subserviently accepting compromise after compromise to appease Israel enough to get their serious attention (it never seems to be enough), to the more distasteful (to say the least) tactics of violence and terror in order to put pressure on Israel. Neither has gotten them very far. As long as bilateral talks continue to founder and as long as violence is used in the name of Palestinian freedom, international pressure on Israel (and by extension the United States) is feeble at best. Contrary to what Hilary Clinton and the American government would like to think, most countries have not seen eye-to-eye with Israel and the United States on the issue of Palestinian sovereignty for quite some time. This discrepancy has become especially pronounced as of late, in light of recent events such as the Israeli attack on the Gaza flotilla and Operation Cast Lead. All Abbas needed to do was to take advantage of and draw attention to this swing in Palestine’s favor.

Numbers do not lie. To be exact, 107 votes in favor of Palestinian membership and 15 against in the recent UNESCO vote do not bode particularly well for the defensibility of the recalcitrant Israeli and American position. Unlike the UN Security Council, in which the United States has pledged to veto any motion to accept Palestine as a full member nation, the United States has the same say in UNESCO as any other member nation. As such, it did not have any leverage with which to hijack the decision toward its own interests at the expense of the interests of the rest of the world. Even its known intent to withdraw $60 million of donations to UNESCO did not faze the 107 members which voted for membership, indicating the strength of resolve behind those who support Palestinian independence.

It is not my place to speculate on the morality of American diplomatic decisions. Yet, did not the United States, which holds itself to be a leader of humanitarian efforts worldwide, refuse $60 million of school supplies and health education just to make a point to further its policy goals? It is not that American foreign policy must be bound by nebulous ideas of morality or anything of the sort. It is clear from the last 60 years that the United States is willing to go to great lengths to prop up and defend Israel and its unpopular policies. But at what cost?

The United States and Israel, now more than ever, are outnumbered and isolated in the international community. The tangible results of the UNESCO vote towards granting Palestinians a state of their own are minimal, at best. However, there are at least twenty different UN organizations in which the United States is just another member nation, without hegemonic veto powers. If Palestine applies for membership in these organizations, it will likely be accepted as a member state as was seen in the UNESCO vote. And if the United States intends to hold true to its 1994 law, an enormous number of international regulatory organizations, including those in which American interests are of extreme significance, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, will be losing American funding and support. Perhaps more importantly, American influence in such organizations will be greatly diminished—imagine an IAEA which rebuffs American demands to investigate Iranian nuclear aspirations.

If President Abbas is able to navigate the diplomatic minefield, he may have struck a goldmine which will manifest itself as the world finally rallies in support of a Palestinian state, putting Israel and the United States into an increasingly uncomfortable position on the world stage. If so, President Obama and his successors will have impossibly thorny decisions to make. Whether this will ultimately result in the United States lifting its veto on full UN membership of Palestine and the formation of a Palestinian homeland remains to be seen.