Not Newt

We dedicated almost half of Thursday’s WUPRadio to the Newt Gingrich surge. Jonathan Bernstein warns about taking the boomlet too seriously:

“Just as was the case with Bachmann and Cain, [Gingrich] is surging in the polls without winning over politicians, GOP-aligned organized groups, or other conservative opinion leaders. That rank-and-file Republicans, who are generally not aware of his weaknesses, are willing to say that they would hypothetically vote for him just doesn’t impress me as a reason to believe there’s anything to it.”

Gavin argues that Newt is the real deal:

“But why is Newt here to stay? Simply put, he is an ideas man. He isn’t afraid to propose a unique solution to a problem. Furthermore, he has successfully portrayed himself as the smartest guy on the stage during debates.”

True, Gingrich may be an “ideas man.” He isn’t, however, always a conservative ideas man, nor are his ideas particularly consistent.

Gingrich has previously argued the government should require people to buy health insurance or face penalties. Now he finds this unconstitutional. Alongside Nancy Pelosi, he appeared in a 2008 TV ad to support Al Gore’s global warming awareness campaign. Let’s also not be so quick to forget about his ethics violations, fiscally hypocritical credit line at Tiffany’s, or sub-par speakership.

Newt has one thing thing going for him that has made conservatives very happy. He is not Mitt Romney.

But I would say that Gingrich and Romney both share a sense of unabashed political opportunism. However, Romney’s brand is more about pragmatism. He has deliberately drifted further right to try and lock up the nomination of a party that has done the same. A Romney administration, which would act far more centrist, would surely disappoint conservatives. President Romney’s switcheroos would feel just as painstakingly careful as Candidate Romney’s though, the kind of contrived decisions that have been work-shopped and focus-grouped. Basically, the reason why today’s Mitt Romney seems so artificial.

Gingrich’s opportunism is less predictable, and this is precisely because he thinks he’s “the smartest guy on the stage.” A Gingrich White House would likewise inevitably disappoint conservatives (Republican voters never really liked him in the 90s anyway), but his betrayals would be more idiosyncratic and erratic like the man himself. Far be it from advisers, critics, or the media (a bunch of liberals) to question Gingrich’s lack of discipline or trustworthiness. After all, he’s the one who is smarter than everyone else!

The media will be quick to play up Newt’s chances because it makes for a much more interesting story. This only exacerbates the polling that, as Bernstein argues, is already fairly deceiving. But Americans love a good head-to-head match-up. Still, as difficult as it may be for conservatives to stomach, I think Mitt is the inescapable nominee.