What Obama Should Say.

Tomorrow, Barack Obama will make potentially his most important speech in his quest for re-election. The president’s speech is the culmination of the Democratic convention and the chance for Obama to dramatically assert his case that he deserves another four years. Obama’s speech should offer specific policy proposals and a clear roadmap for economic recovery in America. Such a speech would be unconventional, but offers numerous advantages for Obama.

First, it would give Obama more publicity. Conventions used to give candidates huge “bounces” in the polls, sometimes over 20 points. Now, convention bounces are much smaller: John Kerry received less than a one percentage point boost after the democratic convention in 2004. The reasons for the decline in convention benefit are uncertain. Perhaps increased partisanship means that voters are less likely to switch support. I suspect that a major contributor of the lack of convention benefit is the advent of the 24 hour news cycle, where voters are inundated with political news and do not pay attention to conventions as a relatively isolated example of political coverage. Instead, conventions are just another political brouhaha in a long line of political brouhahas which have been covered exhaustively.

However, with a substantive policy speech Obama would draw a different and refreshing type of coverage that discussed the merits of the policy proposals, drawing more people to watch the speech. The unorthodox plan of a policy speech at a convention would actually power coverage, since novelty may be the best way to draw attention in an oversaturated political coverage environment.

Second, the speech would highlight the differences between Obama and Romney. Romney has run on a strategy of blaming Obama for all of America’s troubles and offering no policy proposals of his own. Romney’s convention speech fit this pattern of pointed attacks on Obama while offering no policy alternative. With a policy oriented speech, Obama can portray himself as genuinely working to solve the problems of the country, unlike his opponent.

Third, such a speech would make Obama appear presidential. One of Romney’s biggest problems has been his lack of charisma. Obama risks losing his charisma advantage if he is dragged into a brutal, negative campaign. Obama can allow other party members to attack Romney, while he stays above that and potentially reclaims some of the enthusiasm of 2008. The campaign may (and probably would) revert to its current nasty state later on. Obama can claim that he attempted to raise the level of discourse however, something his opponent did not even attempt.

The biggest worry of this strategy is that Obama may be squandering his biggest stage to discuss policy details rather than a sweeping, if vague, speech. But sweeping speeches can only do so much, and are likely to resonate long after the convention ends. A set of policy proposals would fundamentally recast the race, and offers the opportunity to substantially affect the rest of the campaign. It would be a risky move – and right now, Obama looks like he is on pace to win even if he delivers a completely standard speech. But if Obama is willing to take the risk, he has an opportunity to deliver an effective, speech that would raise the level of discussion in the campaign.