So much for Libya’s bright future

In the last issue of WUPR I wrote a relatively optimistic article about Libya’s prospects to be a successful democracy in the Middle East. With the killing of Christopher Stevens and the attack on the US embassy, that prospect is now doubtful at best.

One aspect that the western media has done a poor job of reporting is that the United States enjoys relatively strong support in Libya. In an August Gallup poll, more than half of Libyans said they approved of the United States. Three quarters of Libyans approved of the United States intervention. Al-Qaeda was named the largest threat to the future of Libya. Libyans overwhelmingly want further western assistance rebuilding their nation.

So what happened in Benghazi?

To understand the situation in Libya, one always needs to remember the problems of distributing oil. The oil in Libya is primarily located in the south, where almost nobody lives. The government is located in Tripoli, at the western part of Libya, but a sizable portion of the population lives in Benghazi in the north east. Benghazi started the revolution that overthrew Gaddafi and the people there are extremely worried that the government would impose an inequitable oil distribution on them.

The National Transitional Council didn’t do much to centralize or control Libya, but there wasn’t much they could do since that government had minimal legitimacy. The month-old General National Congress (GNC) had to prove that it could keep the country under control as Libya’s first elected body. The election of Mohammed Magarief as president, who is originally from Benghazi, was a move by the GNC to ensure Benghazi would be under control. Unfortunately, the GNC’s failure to control the east could not be more obvious.

The attacks do not represent the will of the vast majority of the people of Benghazi – in fact, for days citizens have demonstrated against an attack characterized as the work of extremists. They are a demonstration, however, that the government does not control the eastern part of the country. The minister of the interior responsible for managing the east has been sacked and a colonel is his interim replacement. The government has also renewed its efforts to shut down the militias that have substantial military power. After the bombing, 95% of Libyans said they wanted the militias disarmed immediately, and the government has made some headway. The Abu Miliana Martyrs’ Brigade was recently destroyed after some brief fighting. But that brigade was based in Tripoli, the center of the government’s power. Until the GNC demonstrates that it has control over the entire country, it will be considered a failure.

The United States should work to avoid making the situation any worse (by, for example, not making idiotic statements when the nature of the situation is still unclear), but it can’t do much to make the situation better. At best, the Libyan government will display surprising acumen to turn a tragedy into an opportunity to strengthen its control over the country. This is a sadly low goal for a nation which a week ago was one of the best hopes for a pro-US Arab democracy in the Middle East.