Live-Perlblogging the Denver Debate

9:34: Final thoughts. It’s pretty evident to me that Romney “won” the debate. I argued earlier that it probably won’t matter. Maybe Romney will see a bit of a swing in the coming days, but barring some major October catastrophe, I think Obama will be reelected. To me, the biggest takeaway is how marvelously Romney was able to reshape the Medicare and health care narrative. The president has to do better there, and should. If Romney can do this next time with foreign policy — where Obama should clean his clock — he’ll win that debate too. Again, I return to the empathy idea. Romney was strong (as expected), but I don’t think he adjusted his stereotype at all, which is what he needs to do. The Twitters are telling me that most people agree that Romney won, so I’m interested to see how the next few days of spin changes the conversation. All in all, Obama choked on the one the most important event in the campaign thus far. But who knows how much it will matter (pundits!?).

9:28: The bipartisanship question is tough. Romney says bipartisanship will mean sitting down and telling Democrats what he wants them to do on day one. Good luck. Obama did a nice job calling out Republican obstructionism (he should be quite familiar with that topic), and Romney’s complicit role in it too.

9:26: Romney doesn’t know math, but Obama seems incapable of looking at Romney. Which matters more to Americans? The latter, unfortunately.

9:24: Alright, Obama is stuttering again. And I was wrong about the “zingers” thing — it’s Obama who is launching the one-liners while Romney is pitching substance. Obama didn’t need to knock this out of the park, Romney did, but there’s a difference between playing it safe and looking unprepared.

9:18: 47% of Americans don’t believe Romney when he says he cares about people less fortunate.

9:15: General thoughts: Obama is being professorial and boring. He’s leaving things on the table that should be his strongest points. How Romney reshaped the conversation on both Medicare and Obamacare is a complete mystery to me.

9:10: Obama isn’t being as articulate as he needs to be on health care, but he still drives home the key points: pre-existing conditions, Romneycare is the “identical model,” individual mandate was originally a conservative solution to the free-rider problem. Obama highlights the fact that Romney once said he thought the Massachusetts plan would be good for the country. Romney hits Obama more on the process, which is a pretty weak argument, but does well on the (false) idea that Obamacare is a federal takeover of our health system. It’s not, but again, I wonder why Obama can’t articulate that better. Side note: look how well Obama is doing with female voters on that bottom panel.

9:00: Alright, somehow Romney got the better of Obama on Medicare (which is a travesty). Now, we move on to health care. If Obama can’t hammer Romney here and change the momentum, I don’t even know.

8:45: As expected, Romney comes in with the $716 billion in Medicare cuts (DRINK if you’re playing the debate drinking game at home). This is flat out wrong, Obamacare cuts the expected rate of growth, not benefits. This GOP Medicare narrative really grinds my gears, because, let’s face it, Republicans hate Medicare (entitlements!). It’s a little funny to me that Ryan and Romney are trying to act like they are the champions of Medicare. Then again, Obama is showing too much restraint on his Medicare rebuttal. He’s too abstract, and kind of boring. He made the voucher argument, but he’s flailing a bit here. Again, let’s go back to aesthetics. I argued below that Romney’s problem is that he is not empathetic to voters. But he’s coming off as an actual human being for a change, while Obama is coming off as wonky and robotic. What a role reversal.

8:40: Romney shaping the narrative right now: status-quo versus change. That’s how Obama won in 2008, and it seems like Romney is capitalizing on that vibe right now.

8:31: PBS is such small potatoes (I’m sure that will solve our crisis!), but the base will love it. “I like Big Bird” is an insta-meme. Obama still using numbers, while Romney talking about people (small business man from St. Louis got some cheers from where I’m sitting). Obama is starting to get some momentum here.

8:26: Aesthetics note: Obama looking down too much.

8:22: What Obama is saying is true, but very complex, and he’s coming off as a little too wonky. Romney looking pretty “presidential” — whatever that means. Obama sounds like an economics professor.

8:20: Here’s the problem — Obama’s characterization of Romney’s tax plan sounds too wonky in debate format. “Studies” are getting a lot of love so far.

8:14: Romney claiming his plan wouldn’t reduce taxes for the rich. False, taxpayers who earn more than $200,00 would absolutely see a tax cut. Everyone else would see their taxes go up. Romney sounds presidential here, but what he’s saying just isn’t true. Obama does well to call on Mitt for not specifying what loopholes and deductions he’s talking about — citing the independent studies (i.e., Tax Policy Center). Mitt’s math has just never added up.

8:12: That’s not a question, Mitt.

8:10: Romney starting off going very empathetic, mild, likable with that anniversary joke. Obama saying “uh” a lot.

8:08: Both starting off with versions of their convention speeches in 2-minute form. Yawn. “We both have different views for the country” yada yada yada.

8:04: Leading with the anniversary? WHAT ABOUT YOUR GAFFES?

7:50 CST: Hello Perlblogheads (and by that I mean my immediate family and a dedicated set of WUPRites), I’ll be live-blogging the Denver debate tonight. Some things to look for: Everybody has been talking about Romney’s promised “zingers” for tonight. While these jabs might become inside-the-beltway memes, barring any major zings, I don’t think this is going to translate into any meaningful polling change for Romney. In fact, John Sides over at Monkey Cage has done pretty great analysis as to why debates don’t really matter at all. Here’s Romney’s insurmountable problem: Voters think he is a elitist plutocrat. A debate is a great place to show how you’re different from your stereotype (think Reagan in 1980), but since Romney’s problem is a lack of empathy (thanks 47%!), that’s difficult to debunk in a debate format (where, by definition, he has to be more aggressive). Let’s see tonight if Romney can toe the line between coming off as a jerk and an empathetic leader.