Up for Grabs in Venezuela

Shannon O’Neil, a Latin America expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, could barely hide her shock on Wednesday night. Though only a passing phrase in a debate chock full of platitudes, O’Neil’s mouth dropped when Mitt Romney singled out “Trade, particularly with Latin America” as one of his main economic objectives if elected president. “Whoa! First Romney position – more trade with Latin America! Who would have thought, since not part of GOP platform…” she tweeted, with both praise and incredulity.

The lack of focus on Latin America has been typical for a U.S. election season, and, frankly, for any season. But while cable news networks pontificate over Big Bird-gate, they will be missing the most important election story of the week- even if it happens to be this Sunday’s Venezuelan presidential election.

For the first time since 1998, Hugo Chavez faces a credible challenge to his rule, and the Venezuelan electorate has a chance to unshackle itself from the capricious, conniving Chavez and his penchant for totalitarianism. Henrique Capriles Radonski, the skinny 40-year-old governor of Miranda state, has managed the herculean feat of uniting Venezuela’s organized opposition behind the only goal that truly matters, the defeat of Chavez. However, Capriles, a marathon runner, knows that this election may only be one milestone in a much longer race.

Chavez still claims significant support among the poor- a powerful base susceptible both to bribes and propaganda (so are the rich, it’s just that there are fewer of them, and the bribes are different). The Economist, in its briefing on the election, outlined both the carrots and sticks of Chavez’s electoral strategy that Capriles could never (and hopefully would never) dream of replicating. First, as a manner of sweetening the deal for Chavez voters, massive new public housing projects have been promised. However, to qualify for such housing, Venezuelans have to enter a government registry- a powerful tool for Chavez’s essentially state-run campaign. But strong men have long used similarly coercive techniques, so how about something that violates civil liberties a bit more? Chavez gladly obliges with his electoral rules for Venezuela’s over two million government workers: “Like the election ballots, [polling place]  forms require a signature and a thumbprint: the implication that the government will monitor how they vote does not need to be spelled out. ” Chavez has given himself a several mile head-start.

But Capriles has won over many, and not just because he doesn’t wear red and yell on television for hours on end. Capriles has advocated shoring up Venezuela’s ravaged finances, attracting foreign investment, and diversifying the economy away from petroleum products, all while maintaining several of the left-leaning populist causes that have been Chavez’s bread and butter. He hasn’t run to the right of Chavez so much as he has run to a smarter, more fiscally-sound left. Additionally, no one can predict the effect of Chavez’s precarious health situation, as the country has been left in the dark regarding the details of his battle with prostate cancer.

Some polls show Chavez with a double-digit advantage, some have it neck-and-neck, and still others have Capriles with a slight edge, meaning Sunday’s result is anyone’s guess. And that uncertainty, for the first time in 14 years, is why this election is one worth watching.