Live-Perlblogging the Hofstra Debate

9:39: In the last question, Romney tries to close the empathy gap I talked about. How did he do it? By talking about his resume. If the question was really “why should we like you,” I’m not so sure Romney, by listing his business background and the 2002 Olympics, was that convincing.

Obama debunks the notion that he’s some big government socialist, but offers that we should play by the same rules. Brilliantly, Obama ends the debate with the 47%. That empathy that Romney was trying to demonstrate, Obama rejects. This is what people are going to remember.

Final Thoughts: Who was this guy and where was he last debate? Obama won this one. He was aggressive and knew his stuff. He seemed determined to win and had his usual swagger back. Romney wasn’t as great as last time, definitely thrown off by a more aggressive president, and, it seemed, the rules. If Obama had done this last time, this election would have been O-V-E-R. If the last debate was marked by Obama losing on his own key issues — health care and Medicare — then this debate was marked by Romney losing on issues he should have capitalized — Libya and China. I mean really, what was that tangent about the Apple store? That was weird. I don’t know what kind of effect this debate will have in the polls, but my sense is that it will be a boon to the president.

9:20: Obama answers the gun control question with a story about an Aurora victim. Romney says he doesn’t want any new assault weapons legislation, and that we already have a ban. That’s not true, the law passed in 1994, expired in 2004, and was not renewed. He then goes off on a Fast and Furious tangent — clearly this was something he was determined to bring up tonight — before Crowley brings him back. She then brings Obama back from an education tangent. Neither of them really answered the gun control question, very disappointing. Crowley really kept them in line tonight.

9:17: Candy live fact-checks Romney. Obama DID say that it was an act of terror in the Rose Garden? I’m not sure. Oh snap. Fact-checkers?

9:11: Wow, Romney clearly was not ready for Obama to take such strong responsibility for the attack in Libya — probably due to Secretary Clinton’s statement. “I’m always responsible.” Instead of slamming Obama on this, Romney was forced to relent in tone and substance. Obama came off very strong and resolute, and Romney’s response was way more spotty, having to resort to the “apology tour” narrative. Obama brilliantly paints Romney’s response to the Libya attack and politicking. A hush went over the room where I’m sitting. This is brilliant stuff from the president. If this is any indication of how the foreign policy debate is going to go, Romney is in trouble.

9:08: Obama hammers Romney on immigration issues, highlighting self-deportation, the DREAM Act, and the Arizona law. I’m not following Romney here, though. Did he just switch his position on the DREAM Act? Then Romney pivots back to his own personal taxes, and gets in Obama’s face about his pension. Obama’s got the memorable line there. “I don’t look at my pension — it’s not as big as yours.” Pension envy!

8:56: Finally a question about immigration. This should be a home run for the president. Romney says he doesn’t want to give “magnets” to people, but thinks children should have a “pathway” to immigration. Oh, like the DREAM Act? Here’s what I wrote this summer for ThinkProgress:

Romney attacked Governor Rick Perry for supporting the DREAM Act, calling it a “magnet for illegal immigration.”: In a Florida GOP debate, Romney accused Governor Rick Perry of engendering a “magnet” in Texas by allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition. Romney maintained that even though many children had no part in their families’ decisions to immigrate to the United States, they should not be able to have the same academic opportunities as their peers. [September 2011, USA Today]

Romney pledged to veto the DREAM Act: In December, Mitt Romney promised to veto the DREAM Act if he were elected president. Then during a January GOP debate, Romney called allowing any undocumented workers to gain permanent residency “a mistake.” [December 2011, ABC News]

8:52: Ding Ding Ding it took 52 minutes, but Osama bin Laden is dead.

8:42: OK, Perlblogheads, I kind of called that one. Obama rightfully calls out Romney for avoiding Lily Ledbetter. Romney just isn’t going to beat the president on women’s issues. In the Denver debate, Obama would have left that one on the table just like everything else. He’s being aggressive. He has done his homework.

8:41: Would love to hear whether Romney would have signed Lily Ledbetter. He’s never said.

8:36: Obama: Romney pays a ridiculously low rate and isn’t telling us which deductions he’s talking about. Then Obama hits the opportunity Crowley gave him — Romney’s tax uses impossible math. #SketchyDeal is already trending.

8:32: Obama should have attacked Mitt’s impossible tax math in that last exchange.

8:30: Crowley isn’t letting Romney have his way like Lehrer did. Awkward moment when he tried to cite the rules there. He’s looking like a bully. On to taxes, Romney says “$25k in deductions and credits.” Wait, does he not know the difference between those?

8:22 This is one feisty Obama. He’s defending his record on domestic energy production, not backing down on emissions standards, nor should he.

8:20: Obama is looking like the guy he should have been last time. Calls out Romney for flip-flopping on coal. “Not true Governor Romney.” Shorter Obama: Mitt is a liar. Woah, then things got uncomfortable — very argumentative.

8:11: Romney being Romney, saying he supported the auto-bailout. Obama says that simply isn’t true — a much-needed refrain absent from the Denver debate.

8:06: First attack on the auto-bailout comes six minutes in. After a question from a college kid…

7:45 CST: There’s absolutely no doubt that President Obama lost the first presidential debate — and badly. The result has been a 4 point dip in the polls largely unaffected by Joe Biden’s gregariousness last week. There’s two ways this could go tonight. The first is that debate expectations have been so drastically altered that Obama is actually poised for a “victory.” That or Denver was a legitimate wake-up call. If it’s a push, I think the spin will go to Obama, who did well to seriously lessen his expectations. The other plausible alternative is that Romney will continue his momentum because he’s just a much better debater.

One of the president’s biggest failures in Denver was letting Romney pivot to the center with such ease. After weeks of hounding Romney for being an ultraconservative, we got no mention of the 47%, nothing about Bain, tax havens, nada. The upshot is that you should hear about all of that tonight from Obama, and with swagger rather than sleepiness.

I argued in my live-blog of the first debate that Romney faced an empathy gap. He closed that gap a bit primarily by managing to not look like a robot for once. The town hall format tonight will be difficult for both candidates, but in different ways. Obama has to be careful not to over-correct. It looks weird to get very aggressive in front of a live audience (just ask Al Gore). Romney on the other hand needs to once again look like a human being who cares about other human beings. That’s tough to do when you’re in front of actual human beings. These human beings have real stories and real questions that they want addressed — and so a hard switch to a memorized zinger won’t do. This will all be even tougher while he’s being accused of being an elitist plutocrat, which Obama is sure to do.

Even if Obama pulls off a big victory tonight, will it matter? Did Denver do too much damage? Maybe not, according to Nate Silver:

There is no evidence, incidentally, that the second presidential debate is any less important than the first one. On average, it has moved the polls by 2.3 percentage points in one direction or another — almost exactly the same as after the first debate, which moved them by 2.4 percentage points on average.

We won’t know until it’s done, but I suspect that Obama will “win” tonight. I also think you’ll see the polls level, as they are apt to do after a second presidential debate.