The Select Few

Over the years, presidential candidates have become more focused on securing any support that will make even the slightest difference to their total electoral votes. This notion has translated itself into a heavy emphasis on winning swing states. Many presidential elections have come down to a state or a few votes within that state. One doesn’t have to look far back to see how the presidential election of 2000 was implicitly decided by only one state, Florida. With the presidential candidates this year running neck and neck, there is no doubt that it will come down to a select group. This year that privileged group includes Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Many of these states have carried weight in past elections, but what makes this election so unusual is that just a few of their counties will make a difference.

When Americans become aware of this for the first time, their biggest concern is who the people making such a monumental decision really are. Overall, many of the select counties tend to either be predominately white or have burgeoning African American and Hispanic populations. They tend to be middle class and have economies that have been heavily affected by current economic troubles. For many of these counties, they have a large impact on the ultimate outcome of their states. In Nevada, Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, constitutes two-thirds of the state vote. Currently, polls collected by the Huffington Post, show Obama with a slight lead of 49% compared to Romney’s 45%. Similar to most contested areas, these select counties are split along party lines. For example, Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, which constitutes thirty percent of the state’s vote, is split among urban Democratic voters in Manchester and Nashua, and Republican voters in more rural towns. Likewise, Hillsborough County, Florida, is split along its urban and suburban areas.

With the election results riding on such a small fraction of the population, it is no surprise that the candidates have shaped their campaigns to target these exact areas. The most prevalent strategy has become heavy advertisement. Ad spending in the targeted counties has been exorbitant. A recent analysis by the Washington Post estimated that the total cost spent for campaign ads has accumulated to $473.4 million. Most of the advertisements are either negative or focus on unemployment. The biggest targets of the candidate’s advertisements are the exact counties that could decide the election. In the state of Ohio, the candidates have spent a combined total of $22 million in Franklin County, which includes Columbus, and Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati. The analysis has also shown Washington D.C. as one of the most heavily advertised areas in the country. This is because the D.C. media market overlaps with vital areas in northern Virginia. For example, Fairfax County, Virginia, which represents one in seven Virginians, drew a lot of support for Obama in 2008, but is much closer in 2012.

This targeted campaigning involves not just advertising, but also a style focused on building personal relationships. Obama has much to worry about. A president hasn’t won a reelection with an unemployment rate above eight percent since the Great Depression. As a result, he’s spent much of his energy personally campaigning in these crucial counties. Obama has visited local restaurants, high schools, and even church summer camps to portray himself as a man of the people. Meanwhile, he depicts Romney as a greedy corporate executive. Romney’s tactics are not much different. He’s been keeping himself low-key by attending local fundraisers and events and using his “all-American” family to relate to the people. Like Obama, Romney attacks his opponent by portraying him as a man who is incapable of helping the people of America.

With all the intensive campaigning, it is fair to wonder whether either candidate is having any effect on the select voters. Recent polls by The New York Times show Obama slightly ahead in most swing areas and most Americans under the impression that Romney will only favor the rich. With the election riding on so few votes, every action taken by the candidates, no matter how small, will have an effect.

Ultimately, for many Americans, nothing appears to be an attack on the democratic process more than the idea that their vote may not matter. Unfortunately, with Election Day approaching quickly, Americans will have to sit at the sidelines and hope all works out well.