A New Normal

BY AMMAR KARIMJEE

3 weeks ago, something miraculous happened in Pakistan. 55% of eligible Pakistanis, the highest rate since the 1980’s, voted to complete the first peaceful democratic transition in Pakistan’s over 65 years of existence. Created in 1947 as an Islamic Republic which would serve as a haven for Muslims who believed their voice could never be heard in a Hindu dominated India, Pakistan is set up as a parliamentary system with 5 year terms for members of the National Assembly. However, as with any parliamentary system, the government can be dissolved at any time before the 5-year term is over (so long as certain criteria are met). Earlier this year, in March, was the first time a democratically elected Pakistani government served out its full five-year term without being dissolved for some reason or being taken over by a military coupe. A transitional government was installed, and on Saturday, May 11, elections finally occurred.

A voter turnout of 55% will probably seem unimpressive to people in the United States, which had a voter turnout of about 57% in 2012. However, it is vital to understand the many reasons a Pakistani might have to not vote. Pakistan as a whole has been recently plagued by a pervasive disillusionment with its government, which is understandable given its tumultuous history. When back home, I often find my enthusiasm in conversations about Pakistan brushed aside by adults: “We, too, used to be ambitious and passionate about the future of this country. We got tired; it’s useless. It’s only a matter of time till you understand that too.” Though this past government somehow lasted its 5-year term, it was in no way pretty, and was definitely not earned or deserved by the politicians due
to some sort of productivity or drastic improvements in lifestyle for the average Pakistani. The main party that formed the government this past 5-years was expected to (and did) get crushed in the recent elections. There is a prevailing notion among Pakistanis that it does not matter who they support, especially on a national scale, as regardless of their vote, conditions in the country stay the same. The Pakistani government has consistently failed to be able to monopolize violence and provide security, which in most stable countries is a precursor to other kinds of governing. Some Pakistanis show up to vote and are coerced to vote for a specific party when they arrive at the ballot box. Others are not so politely told that their vote has in fact already been cast. Rigging is so commonplace, that it is often not so much a question of whether it will occur, but how prevalent it will be. It is with all this in mind that one must consider how abnormal it is for such a high voter turnout to occur.

It would be an understatement to say election fever hit Pakistan hard this year. It was the topic everyone was talking about, especially among elite circles and youth. What I found most exciting about the campaigning and the conversations that surrounded this election was that they were not centered on individual candidates or parties. The majority of Facebook advertisements and status posts and in person conversations I was privy to were focused on making sure people would go out and vote; it did not matter for whom. Who you were voting for was only secondary to actually voting, which seems unimaginable in the framework of United States politics. Moreover, Pakistan was reminded of how many intelligent, passionate citizens it truly had. After the Arab Spring, some Pakistanis, including myself, were disappointed that the same passion and frustration had not exploded in Pakistan. Maybe it was that people were just lazy or that things were simply not bad enough to protest. I now realize that the method and the timing were just not right. Both came together in months leading into the May election. Individual people would post Youtube videos reminding people to vote, providing essential information about candidates and district breakdowns. Short videos starring famous and inspirational Pakistanis were released encouraging people to go out the polls. It was truly amazing to see this many people so excited about the elections.

A lot of the excitement among youth was undoubtedly a result of the emergence of a new political party in Pakistan: the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). Led be the charismatic former Pakistan cricket team captain Imran Khan, PTI has been around since the late 1990’s, but won its first seat in 2008, and really started drawing massive support over the past two years. Political rallies put on by PTI would draw crowds of over 300,000 in some cities, making them some of the biggest political rallies in Pakistani history. Imran Khan made all the promises and said all the right things. He was going to get rid of corruption in 100 days; he was going to build roads and schools and hospitals. People were excited about him, but I believe people were more excited about the opportunity to elect someone new. It did not truly matter who he was, but it mattered that he had not screwed up yet. In a country where politics is dominated by familial ties, Imran Khan was proving you did not have to be of a certain last name or certain party to garner support. Polls had him in the lead the day before the election. It is said that as he was leaving his house to make a final campaigning push in the two weeks before the election, his kids were upset that he was leaving again. “Don’t worry kids,” rumor has him saying, “Next time you see me I will be the leader of this great country.”

As a contrast to the United States, Pakistan is a multi-party system, with more than seven parties competing in some districts. Since there are so many parties, it is unlikely that a single party will win enough seats to form government by itself. In recent history, one party has always emerged the clear winner, and has only had to form a coalition with a few smaller parties in order to form the government. Before General Pervez Musharraf took control of Pakistan in a coupe in 1999, the past 10 years had been dominated by 2 parties: Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistani People’s Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N). One party would take control in an election, then 2-3 years later, some accusations would arise and parliament would be dissolved. In the ensuing elections, the other party would win. Then the process would repeat. This happened 4 total times before Musharraf enacted Marshall Law. So when Musharraf was ousted in 2008, it was these two parties that were the real contenders in the 2008 election. The PPP ended up winning a plurality of seats and formed government with a couple of smaller parties. In 2013, however, the battle was set to be between PTI and PML-N. It was expected to be neck and neck.
Though allegations and evidence of rigging were certainly present, the elections were overall some of the fairest in recent memory. Surprising many, PML-N emerged as the clear winner, gaining more than triple the seats PTI and PPP did. PTI largely disappointed, coming very close in lots of places, but somehow always falling short. PPP, who many expected to be a non-factor, proved its historical might by matching PTI. There are a number of reasons that explain why PML-N won so handily. First, they took a more constituency-by-constituency approach, while PTI took a more national approach. For most of the poor voters, which form a large majority of most districts, local politics and the opinions of local elders is the most important factor. PML-N nailed those key endorsements and won the key districts. Further, PTI focused greatly on issues that affected the middle and upper class, and did not campaign enough towards the masses. Some analysts are saying PTI’s position in the election was never as secure as the media and very badly conducted polls made it seem. Though most supporters are a bit disillusioned, PTI and its followers should be proud of their accomplishments in recent years, and should be excited for its future. A few minor campaigning adjustments will make them an even bigger force in the coming years. Credit should be given to PML-N for not being scared by the polls and for sticking to the strategies that have made them successful for many years.

So where does this put the country? To be honest, I do not think Pakistan will be distinctly different a year from now than it was before the elections. However, the attitude seems to have distinctly changed. People have a sense of agency that I do not believe existed a year ago. And the government now knows that it has to produce results or it will get crushed. Last names and familial ties are no longer enough. Expect Imran Khan to be back and compete again in 2018, and expect this trend of 5-year governments who are democratically elected to become the norm. The Pakistani people finally have something to prove and a way to prove it.