Is Everything Bluer in Texas?
BY KEVIN DEUTSCH
By some accounts, Texas is slipping away from the Republican Party. If it is, it’s a big deal. Texas now carries 38 electoral votes, and for the first time since Bill Clinton decided to write the state off in 1992, the Democrats see the votes as potentially up for grabs. This is because of Texas’s demographics are changing. There’s a rapidly growing Hispanic population, which accounts for 50.2% of all births. Moreover, 92% of the growth of Texas’s electorate since 2008 can be attributed to Hispanics.
Obviously, a purple—much less blue—Texas hasn’t materialized yet. For one, non-Hispanic Whites made up about 59% of voters there in 2012, but were only 45.3% of the state’s population. Meanwhile, only 4 out of 10 Hispanics of any race voted, while they make up 26% of eligible voters (and 37.6% of the population). In comparison, more than 60% of non-Hispanic whites and 63% of blacks came out to vote in 2012. However, Mitt Romney only took in 29% of the Hispanic vote, and Texas ranks 42nd in voter registration out of all states. And did I mention that 92% of new voters since 2008 have been Hispanic? For the GOP, this is all bad news—even the figures that explain why Texas is still red. Everything illustrates the tremendous untapped potential for Democratic voters in Texas’s Hispanic population. And the Democratic Party has taken notice. Since February, Battleground Texas has been on the ground, registering voters—primarily Hispanic voters—trying to pry Texas from the Republicans’ grasp.
However, things may not be so bad for the Republican Party in Texas. In 2004, President George W. Bush took in 44% of the Hispanic vote nationwide (though this percentage is probably inflated because of faulty polling). In fact, he did so well with Hispanics, that he won New Mexico, which is 46% Hispanic—the highest percentage of any state. Bush’s success is widely attributed to his favorable stance on immigration reform.
Mitt Romney’s poor showing among Hispanics is attributed to his opposition to reform. However, “liberal” immigration reform (with amnesty) may not even be the key to conjuring Hispanic votes. In New Mexico, Congressman Steve Pearce is the only Republican representing a district on the US-Mexico border. His district, New Mexico’s 2nd, is the most Hispanic district represented in Congress by a person who is white and non-Hispanic. In his last election, Pearce won 44% of the Hispanic vote despite opposing immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship. Pearce maintains support among his constituents by regularly, calmly explaining his positions at town hall meetings. He’s attentive to the concerns of his Hispanic constituents, and listens when someone disagrees with him. He also advocates a “compromise plan,” which wouldn’t deport illegal immigrants, but not grant them citizenship either. Most other congressman either want to strengthen border security and deport illegals, or give those people an opportunity to become citizens. Pearce demonstrates that messaging and moderation may be sufficient to win over voters.
Back in Texas, there are some good signs for the GOP. Republican Senator Ted Cruz took 36% of the Hispanic vote in his 2012 senate race, even though he’s Cuban (and most Texan Hispanics are of Mexican descent, and Mexican-Americans have a history of conflict with Cuban-Americans). Before that, Republican Governor Rick Perry won 40% of the Hispanic vote in his 2010 re-election. Both oppose amnesty, though overall, do not believe illegal immigrants should be deported. In particular, Cruz tries to avoid the issue, while Perry has voiced support for providing in-state tuition to people illegally brought to Texas as children.
Moving forward, the best thing the GOP can do to retain Texas in presidential elections is nominate politicians who don’t advocate deporting millions of illegals. Having local and state politicians who are Hispanic could also prove beneficial, because it would make the GOP more identifiable to Hispanics. This is because the Republican politicians in their communities would be like them, and not just white people. George P. Bush could be one of those politicians for the Republicans in Texas. The half-Mexican son of Jeb Bush is running to be the Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office, a position that is seen as a steppingstone to becoming Governor.
Pundits from the left and the right see the Lone Star State as fertile ground for the Democrats. Were Texas to turn purple, the Democrats would have a tremendous advantage in presidential elections, since there would only be about 153 electoral votes the Republicans could rely on (compared to the Democrats’ 247 reliable electoral votes). Yet pundits shouldn’t be so sure about the state that gave us two Bushes—and possibly a third by the end of this decade. While the GOP should be alarmed by what’s happening along the Rio Grande, it’s capable of keeping up the fight there.