Is Texas Finally Feeling Blue?
BY ALEX BEAULIEU
No one said it was possible. No one believed anyone could accomplish such a feat. Even the rather liberal New York Times declared that, “turning Texas blue – or even purple – is going to be a lot harder than most folks imagine.” But has the time finally arrived? Can one state senator turn the Lone Star state blue and consequently transform Texan politics? Leading up to the 2014 gubernatorial election, Wendy Davis has a long road ahead of her. But numerous factors indicate she can do exactly that.
Davis attained national recognition after her filibuster of a controversial anti-abortion bill. Sporting pink sneakers, Davis stood in front of the Texas State Senate for 11 hours voicing her concerns over a bill that would essentially eliminate most abortion clinics throughout Texas and prevent abortions altogether after the twentieth week of pregnancy. Although the bill eventually passed, it was too late: Wendy Davis became a national star.
When Governor and former presidential candidate Rick Perry announced he would not seek a fourth term, voices throughout the country cried out for a Davis candidacy. And although she originally appeared hesitant, Wendy Davis eventually announced her run for governor in early October. Although the odds are against her- no Democrat has occupied the Governor’s mansion since 1995 – the state senator possesses favorable traits that will make this race interesting.
A common argument cited against Davis’s electoral prospects is that her fame may be recognized nationally but does not resonate on the statewide level. But according to a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, 68 percent of Texans have heard of the state senator. The same poll also found that 39 percent hold a favorable opinion of her, while 29 percent have an unfavorable opinion. With an entire year before Election Day, posting those kinds of numbers in a heavily conservative state is impressive. And the numerous endorsements from popular interest groups, such as EMILY’s List, will certainly improve local name recognition. Also, Davis’s likely contender, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, only leads the state senator by a margin of 8 percent, with half of Texan voters undecided. This is especially alarming for the relatively well-known Abbott considering Davis has been widely known for only a few months.
Another observation skeptics highlight is Abbott’s seemingly insuperable fundraising scheme. Although the attorney general has already collected $20 million, Wendy Davis will likely continue to rake in big donations thanks to her impressive national recognition. Most likely, these two candidates will be pretty even in fundraising. In the past ten years, Rick Perry collected more than $100 million in contributions for his gubernatorial elections. So, having an equal financial footing will significantly boost Davis’s chances compared to previous Democratic nominees, who simply could not match Perry.
Another factor favorable to Davis is Texas’s changing demographics. With Hispanics continuing to immigrate to Texas, the demographics this election are expected to be quite different than during the 2010 gubernatorial race. In fact, projections indicate that Hispanics may come close to equaling Caucasians by the 2014 election. This statistic is important because about 60 percent of Texas Hispanics vote Democratic. Moreover, throughout his political career, Abbott has isolated minorities through his controversial rhetoric. Earlier this year, Abbott claimed that “without voter fraud, Obamacare would not exist,” essentially placing the blame on minorities, who, by voting fraudulently, were able to elect Democrats to pass Obamacare. Such bombast may not just increase the percentage of Hispanics voting Democratic, but could also galvanize many who otherwise would not have voted.
Although these previous factors are significant, the most important element in a possible Davis victory is the candidate herself. Few Texas Democrats have achieved a following comparable to Davis’s so early in their political careers. With a Harvard law degree and extensive experience in the field, she clearly possesses the aptitude for the job. But more importantly, she epitomizes the roots upon which this country was founded: the American Dream. Growing up poor and living in a trailer park as a single mom at the age of 19, Davis’s story of endurance and resilience has already inspired thousands. Her story will continue to motivate and attract those who would not typically vote for a Democrat. With the right coalition, cogent messaging, and unrelenting determination, Wendy Davis will single-handedly turn Texas blue.