Why Rubio Won’t Be King in 2016
BY HUGH DUNKLEY, JR.
Marco Rubio came onto the national stage in Florida’s 2010 senate election. He defeated incumbent governor Charlie Crist, who ran as an independent, partially thanks to the Democratic candidate, Congressman Kendrick Meek, who split Florida’s progressive vote.
Now, just 1 year after the 2012 election, Rubio is being touted as a strong candidate for the 2016 presidential election. The Republican Party is less than 18 months away from starting its presidential nomination process, and like it or not, we need to start thinking about 2016.
At the same time, with regards to Rubio, the hype is overblown. The ‘Crown Prince’ of the Tea Party will not ascend from prince to king in 2016.
For starters, Marco Rubio’s may not even run for president in 2016 – his Senate term is up then. Rubio’s first Senate race was in 2010, and he must defend his seat in 2016. Even if he does choose to run, however, a November 14th Rasmussen Reports poll has Rubio finishing fifth in the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination process, behind Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Jeb Bush. In addition, according to an August 6th presidential poll conducted by Monmouth University, in a general election, Marco Rubio would lose to Hillary Clinton 47-36%. Other potential presidential candidates whose terms are up in 2016 include Senators Rand Paul, Kelly Ayotte, and Rob Portman. Faced with a daunting opponent, Rubio and his counterparts may think it wiser to stay in the senate.
Even if Marco Rubio does somehow find a way to beat Chris Christie and others out for the Republican nomination, he will be hampered in the general election by his inability to carry vital swing states.
In the presidential election of 2012, 15 states were competitive. One of these states was Florida. Changing demographics in such states have been bad for Republicans. And, though Marco Rubio is Hispanic, and Hispanics are America’s most rapidly changing demographic group, as a Cuban American, Rubio cannot identify with other Hispanics. While many Hispanics come together around the issue of immigration reform, Cuban immigrants become automatic citizens as long as they can get onto U.S. soil. Further, despite originally pushing immigration reform, Rubio has since rescinded his position. Because Rubio cannot relate to the plight of these Hispanics, this makes it difficult for him to win crucial Hispanic votes in places like Ohio, New Mexico, Virginia, and even in Florida, his home state.
In close presidential races such as those of 2000 and 2012, candidates whom have failed to win their home states have lost their overall presidential races. Unfortunately for Rubio, Florida’s demographics do not favor him. As things stand, only one third of Florida’s residents were born in Florida. Many non-native Floridians include immigrants from the Caribbean, Latin America, and elderly people from states like New York. These groups, with the exception of Cubans, tend to vote democratically. In fact, the only reason why Marco Rubio, a Republican, won Florida’s 2010 Senate race, was that Charlie Christ and Kendrick Meek split Florida’s democratic vote, clearing the way for a Republican victory.
Despite his victory in 2010, Marco Rubio probably will not end up winning the state of Florida in 2016. But, there is one particular case in which he could have a chance. If Florida’s unpopular Tea-Party Governor Rick Scott is ousted by Republican-turned Democrat Charlie Crist and Floridians end up not liking Crist, Republicans, and Rubio could carry Florida. On the other hand, if Rick Scott is somehow reelected in 2014, Florida would probably vote democratically in 2016.
At the end of the day, if the GOP is interested in challengin for the presidency in 2016, they shouldn’t look to Marco Rubio. A stronger, more moderate alternative is a president-vice president duo made up of Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan. A Christie-Snyder combination could have more success in 2016 due to the successes both governors have had within their democratic states-Christie with his balancing of New Jersey’s budget, and Snyder in keeping the city of Detroit afloat. Either way, Republicans should be focusing on making Chris Christie king in 2016, not Marco Rubio.