The 2014 Senate Elections
BY KEVIN DEUTSCH
The Playing Field
Normally, President Obama’s lackluster approval rating (low 40s) would indicate Democrats are set to take huge losses in both houses of congress. This isn’t the case. The Republican Party is also unpopular. And the ongoing conflict between moderates and the Tea Party keeps the GOP from selling a coherent message to American voters, other than “a vote for us is a vote against Obama.” Democrats also lack a message, and have relied on attacking the character of Republican opponents. With an unpopular president and an unpopular opposition party, 2014 is shaping up to be a neutral year.
Nevertheless, Republicans are almost certain to pick up seats in the Senate. This is because in swing states and red states, there are several Democrats either retiring or running for re-election. Democrats have a few opportunities to take seats from Republicans, but the odds are in the Grand Old Party’s favor. The real question is whether the Republicans will win the six seats they need to control the Senate.
Below is a race-by-race analysis, ordered from most competitive to least competitive. All other races are considered “safe” for the party holding the seat.
Ratings Key:
- Toss-up (<55% chance of either major party candidate winning)
- Leans (55%-60%)
- Likely (60%-75%)
- Very Likely (75%-95%)
- Safe (>95%)
#1: North Carolina
Rating: Toss-up
Only 33% of North Carolina voters approve of Kay Hagan, while 49% disapprove. Despite her unpopularity, the race is close. Republican challenger Thom Tillis, the Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, presided over the passage of several controversial laws, that have established voter ID requirements, cut unemployment benefits, and created new abortion restrictions. Tillis is otherwise a suitable opponent—qualified and certainly not a gaffe machine. But a Libertarian candidate, Sean Haugh, has polled up to 11% of the vote, and could spoil the race for Tillis by drawing Republican voters from him. Considering Hagan’s disfavor, Tillis’ record in the North Carolina House, and the presence of Haugh, this race is a toss-up.
#2: Alaska
Rating: Toss-up
Senator Mark Begich is running for re-election against former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. Begich won in 2008 against longtime Seantor Ted Stevens, who had just been convicted on corruption charges (which were later dismissed). Alaska is notoriously hard to poll, which obviously makes its elections tough to predict. Begich has led in the few polls put outp But let’s remember, in 2010, Tea Party insurgent Joe Miller led both write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski and Democrat Scott McAdams. And we know who the senior US senator from Alaska is, right? (It’s Lisa Murkowski) Basically, Begich’s lead only means the race might be close. Obama’s approval rating in Alaska (38.9%) suggests that Begich is in trouble.
#3: Iowa
Rating: Tossup
Despite initially being favored to win the seat of retiring Democrat Tom Harkin, Bruce Bailey has faltered. He faced no competition in the primary, but made a serious gaffe by belittling Iowa farmers and Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa in the same breath. Republican state senator Jodi Ernst, who received attention for an ad in which she referenced her history castrating pigs on her childhood farm, has proven to be a better candidate than pundits expected. Right now, the race is a dead heat.
#4: Louisiana
Rating: Toss-up
Sen. Mary Landrieu has escaped defeat as a Democrat in increasingly red Louisiana. The state was once receptive to populist Democrats like Huey Long, or Southern Democrats like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. But it recently voted for Mitt Romney by a 17.2-point margin. Only 40% of Louisianans approve of President Obama, and like other red-state Democrats, Landrieu has worked to distance herself from him. Back in 2009 and 2010, she opposed a public healthcare option.
After a long saga of close races—first winning in 1996 on Clinton’s coattails, winning a nail-biter runoff in 2002, and then riding high African American turnout to victory in 2008—Mary Landrieu’s time could be up. She will likely be forced into a December runoff with Rep. Bill Cassidy. Without President Obama at the top of the ticket, she will likely be missing many of the African Americans who helped re-elect her in 2008.
#5: Colorado
Rating: Toss-up
At the beginning of this campaign cycle, Democrat Mark Udall’s seat was consider safe. This is no longer the case, really for two reasons. For one, a recent Quinnipiac poll found that 53.7% of Coloradans disapprove of President Obama, while only 39% approve of the job he is doing. As a Democrat, Udall is naturally associated with the President. Add to that the strength of his challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner. Udall, the son of legendary congressman Mo Udall, has his work cut out for him.
#6: Arkansas
Rating: Leans Republican
Earlier this year, this race was considered a “Toss-up” by most race rating sites. But Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, an Iraq War Veteran. has gained momentum in his challenge to incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor. Nearly 60% of people in his state disapprove of President Obama. Pryor has proven to be durable in polls, but his seat is the second most likely to flip.
#7 Georgia
Rating: Likely Republican
In a Democratic year (like 2006), Michelle Nunn, the daughter of beloved former Senator Sam Nunn, would have a much better shot at winning Georgia’s open senate seat. To win, she would need to increase turnout among African Americans, and take at least 30% of the white vote. In Georgia, this is easier said than done. However, Republican David Purdue, a former businessman, is new to politics and has run behind Nunn in several polls. Most likely, this reflects Nunn’s strength as a candidate, rather than her chances of winning. Georgia may be turning purple, but the conditions this year—lower Democratic and African American turnout—favor Purdue.
#8: Michigan
Rating: Likely Democrat
With Democrat Carl Levin retiring from the Senate after 36 years, Michigan Republicans have an opportunity to win a Senate seat for the first time in 20. They’ve nominated former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to face Rep. Gary Peters. Both are formidable candidates, with Land having won a statewide race in a blue-leaning state, and Peters having won a competitive primary as a caucasian in an African-American majority district. Republicans have outspent Democrats in the race, but since the spring, Peters has led in the polls by 4 or 5 points.
#9: New Hampshire
Rating: Likely Democrat
Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen will likely face former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who still needs to win the primary on September 9th. Brown hasn’t attracted as much support as Republicans hoped, but two polls last month showed him catching up to Shaheen. Coming from the Bay State, Brown faces accusations of carpetbagging, and still needs to sell himself to New Hampshire voters.
#10: Kansas
Rating: Likely Republican
Unexpectedly, the Kansas US Senate race is one of the most exciting in the country. First, incumbent Pat Roberts barely survived a primary challenge from a weak Tea Party candidate, winning less than half the vote. Now, he is polling less than 50% against a Democrat, Chad Taylor, and Greg Orman, a centrist Independent. Taylor dropped out of the race, presumably to keep Roberts from winning by combining his support with Orman’s support. Taylor’s name may still appear on the ballot.
Right now, the Kansas GOP is in the midst of a civil war. Governor Sam Brownback has alienated many moderate Republicans, and many have endorsed the Democratic nominee in the gubernatorial election. Some pundits believe Orman could draw support from disaffected moderate Republicans.
Despite Roberts’ troubles, he has significantly out-fundraised both Taylor and Orman, and Kansas is a deeply red state. Still, he hasn’t run an ad or campaigned since the August 5th primary, and the national Republican Party is worried enough to take over his campaign. The race is Roberts’ to lose.
#11: Kentucky
Rating: Very Likely Republican
Unlike Sen. Pat Roberts, Republican Mitch McConnell has been aggressively defending his seat for months. McConnell knew he was unpopular at home, and prepared for his re-election campaign well in advance. In May, he won the Republican primary by a comfortable margin. Running against him is Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, another Secretary of State vying for a Senate seat.
Like Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, Grimes is a great candidate running in a toxic environment for Democrats. However unlike Tennant, Grimes is running against someone who most voters in her state dislike. Still, the conservative Kentucky electorate will probably find it very difficult to vote for a Democrat in a race that could decide control of the Senate. McConnell has consistently led Grimes since May, and is very likely to win—albeit by a relatively small margin.
#12: West Virginia
Rating: Very Likely Republican
Republicans haven’t won a US Senate race in West Virginia since 1956, but it looks like Rep. Shelly Moore Capito will break that losing streak. For the longest time, Democrats have done well in West Virginian gubernatorial and senatorial races, for two reasons. One: because the party has been able to produce centrist, well-funding, long-serving candidates. Two: more than half of all voters Democrats.
Make no mistake; West Virginia voters aren’t bleeding heart liberals. In fact, they haven’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1996. With Sen. Jay Rockefeller retiring, Democrats have fielded West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. Tennant is a good candidate who has a small chance of winning, mostly because of President Obama’s dismally low approval ratings in West Virginia.
#13: Minnesota
Rating: Very Likely Democrat
Recently, gurus like Larry Sabato have decided that the Senate race in Minnesota could be competitive. Sen. Al Franken, a Democrat, is running for re-election, after being elected by 312 votes in 2008. Franken is well-funded, but Republicans could decide to invest heavily in their candidate Mike McFadden, as a few polls have showed him running less than ten points behind Franken.
#14: Montana
Rating: Very Likely Republican
Democratic Sen. John Walsh, an appointee, was already expected to lose his seat to Rep. Steve Daines. But in early August, the New York Times revealed that the senator had mostly plagiarized his 2007 dissertation for his master’s degree. He quickly dropped out of the race, and was replaced on the ballot by Montana state representative Amanda Curtis. As Montana’s at-large representative, Daines enjoys more name recognition than Curtis and the advantage of having already spent months campaigning. It would be an enormous upset if Daines lost.
#15: Oregon
Rating: Very Likely Democrat
The rollout for Obamacare was apparently an absolute disaster in Oregon, with over $250 million wasted. Republican Monica Wheby, a prominent doctor, has risen to challenge incumbent Democrat Jeff Mereley. Polls show Merkeley well ahead of Wheby, who has received little attention since being nominated.
#16: Virginia
Rating: Very Likely Democrat
This sleepy US Senate race attracted attention when Ed Gillespie, a former RNC chairman, decided to challenge popular Democrat Mark Warner. The race hasn’t been polled much, but the few put out show Warner well ahead. Gillespie could be running to build name recognition for a 2017 run in the Virginia gubernatorial election.
#17: New Jersey
Rating: Very Likely Democrat
Maybe this author is just giving this race attention because he’s from New Jersey. Or maybe because it’s a “sleeper race” according to the National Review. We’ll never know. Anyway, Democrat Cory Booker was elected by a closer-than-expected margin in a 2013 special election to replace the late Frank Lautenberg. Booker only ran 11-points ahead of a less-than-qualified Tea Party activist, and this year, he is only running 10-points ahead of Jeff Bell.
Bell is a paleoconservative former GOP operative, who defeated the last Republican US Senator from New Jersey in a 1978 primary, and then lost in November to basketball star Bill Bradley. He wants the US to return to the gold standard, and lived in Virginia for about 35 years before moving back to the Garden State this year. Bell unexpectedly emerged victorious in the June primary out of a crowded field of unqualified candidates.
Booker will likely win, and hasn’t even really begun to campaign yet.