Nigeria’s Nadir
Nigerians presently face a huge decision regarding their upcoming presidential election. The incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will try to maintain his party’s dominance which dates back when the nation resumed democratic elections in 1999. However, he faces Muhammadu Buhari, a former Nigerian military dictator in the 1980s, whose popularity has been growing. Buhari is running with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party that surprisingly won almost 32 percent of the vote last election, while the PDP dropped from 69 percent to 58 percent during the same election. A topic that has made the election even more heated is the cascading price of oil, which as the largest sector of the Nigerian economy constitutes approximately 80 percent of the government’s revenue. This has thrown an already chaotic country into more trouble.
According to an analysis by the BBC, Nigeria needs oil to be at least $123 per barrel to balance its budget. This is due to their large population, and how heavily the country relies on the industry to provide revenue for the government. Because the government partakes in heavily invested joint-ventures with oil companies, a fall in the price of oil drastically changes the way the government functions. The government has already responded by cutting its budget by six percent and adding new taxes. In contrast, many Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait whose economies are also dependent on oil have not had to do this or felt such desperation. These countries have reserves of foreign currency stored from all the money they have saved from years of excess sales. Nigeria on the other hand, does not have these kinds of reserve funds for the government to run on. As a result the country faces a serious crisis that not only affects their economy, but their upcoming political election.
For years, Nigeria has been one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ranking 121st in the Corruption Perception index. Part of this is due to the heavy influence of the oil industry. The elite who have garnered wealth from their position in the industry receive petrodollars, which are dollars gained from the sale of petroleum. Nigerian politicians then buy these from the oil elites in order to hide and sometimes launder their own money. Once campaign season starts, however, politicians turn to anonymous “street changers” who swap the dollars back to naira, the currency of Nigeria. They do this in order to be able to advertise, campaign, and bribe people. Because of how large scale this kind of corruption has become, there have been shakes of instability in the currency.
Buhari has blamed Jonathan and his administration for some of this corruption. In addition, the former general has criticized Jonathan for a lack of strength against Boko Haram and other militant groups. Boko Haram has been rampaging through the northern Muslim part of the country, and the Nigerian army has been unable to stop them.
The army has been largely ineffective against fighting Boko Haram because the soldiers don’t listen to their commanders, who take money from the soldiers’ salaries. Furthermore, the soldiers aren’t supplied with materials like boots and jackets because of corruption, as army officials pocket the money that is supposed to purchase these items. Such corruption and disorganization within the military has allowed Buhari to gain tremendous support in the North, where the people see him as someone who could bring back discipline to the country and army, allowing for the expulsion of Boko Haram. He has also seen growing popularity in the southern Nigeria because of chaos there. It is estimated that the country lost 10.9 billion dollars in potential revenue from 2009 to 2011 due oil theft, largely due to militants stealing oil in the South. This is a growing issue because of the drop in oil prices, as the people exceedingly need every last ounce of oil.
The presidential battle will determine the next step for Nigeria—whether the country and its potentially new leader decide to battle the corruption that has been plaguing the country from within, and whether the elected winner decides to focus on defeating Boko Haram and the other militants who plague the country from the outside. Whoever the president may be, it is utterly import that he solve these problems as Nigeria is the eighth most populous country in the world, and has the largest population and most quickly growing economy in Africa. Nigeria has the potential to be a powerful country, but dreams of this will not simply come to fruition with 62 percent of the nation living in extreme poverty in a country facing problems of corruption, militant fighting, and economic instability due to falling oil prices. The next president must be able to stand strong against these issues and help turn the country around.