More Silence About Brexit – More Trouble for the EU

Though the British referendum on leaving the European Union is just two months ahead, the British people likely do not feel as though something truly historical is going to happen. This is not because leaving the EU, a proposal known as the “Brexit,” is unlikely—in fact, polls show voters evenly distributed between the Leave and Remain camps—but because the intensity of public debate remains low. The old and well-known threats of the United Kingdom of leaving the European community, from a greater push by Scottish people to gain independence to businesses leaving the country, do not evoke emotions at the same scale that they did in the past. The public opinion thus remains hugely unaffected by the campaign. At least since November, the support for both options has stagnated between 40 and 45 percent, with over 10 percent undecided.

The apathetic electorate

A glance at young people’s preferences will tell us that the weakness of the whole referendum campaign is rooted in the weakness of the Remain camp. Its failure to mobilize its electorate is best epitomized in the attitudes of voters aged 18-24. According to a poll conducted for the Observer magazine, 53 percent of them, more than in any other age group, back EU membership, with only 29 percent of them opposing it; however, just over half of this group is determined to actually vote on June 23, an expected turnout less than that of any other age group.

Ironically, the pro-EU education secretary recently said that the young people would be most affected by Brexit. Leaders of the Remain camp know that in the event of Brexit, students would have limited access to foreign education and job markets. Pro-EU politicians are also concerned that 29 percent of businesses, discouraged by limits on trade and movement of capital, are ready to reduce operations in the UK or completely relocate if Brexit occurs, thus reducing opportunities for employment. However, the Remain campaign does not succeed in communicating these (real) threats in order to mobilize young voters.

Scotland and lost emotions

A substantial difficulty for the Remain camp is its inability to stir voters’ emotions, which the Eurosceptics once stirred with their opposition to immigration. In fact, Boris Johnson, the mayor of London and a prominent supporter of Brexit, claims that mass immigration would be essential for economic growth independent of the EU. This takes away from EU enthusiasts the unique opportunity to stand up against right-wing xenophobia.

The issue of Scottish independence, central during past campaigns, is also losing its rhetoric value. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister and leader of the separatist and pro-EU Scottish National Party, warned that if Britain votes to leave, there “almost certainly” will be a second vote on the Scottish independence. (The first one, held in 2014, failed 45-55 percent.) Such a move would be in line with SNP’s old rhetoric that Brexit would “force” pro-European Scotland out of the UK. Yet the number of Scots expected to vote for independence in case of Brexit—54%—is too reminiscent of the polls before the first failed referendum for Sturgeon to take a huge political risk by calling another one. Voters in other parts of the UK have likely lost interest in the issue, and that keeps public attention away from the Remain campaign.

Unbalanced negotiations

One could blame the Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, for this situation. As I argued in an earlier article about British EU membership (re: Is it Really about Economics? WUPR 23.2), Corbyn’s landslide victory in his party’s leadership election last fall was a success for the traditional, social democratic, internationalist, and pro-EU Labour Party. Yet Corbyn has not engaged in the Remain campaign; in fact, only 47% of British people believe that he actually wants UK to stay in the EU. On the other hand, 74% say the same about PM Cameron, who is on the pro-EU side of generally Eurosceptic Conservative Party.

European Union officials have recently been unhelpful in convincing Corbyn to campaign for the EU’s cause. In January, German weekly Der Spiegel argued that EU leaders are so determined to prevent the Brexit “at all costs” that they would give Cameron an easy win in negotiations over Britain’s status in the EU if it votes to stay. The publication rightly anticipated the concessions over providing welfare benefits to immigrants that the EU member countries granted to the UK on February 19. Given this evidence of the EU’s opportunism and lack of vision, campaigning for it may just not be worthwhile for Corbyn, who would seek a fundamental social-democratic reform in the organization. And without a campaign effort by the Labour Party and Corbyn, who proved his outstanding charisma during the party’s leadership race, the boredom with Scotland, young people’s indifference, and a strong Leave campaign are likely to lead Britain out of the EU.