Welcome to My House
As the 2018 Midterm elections approach, the focus is on the race for control of the House of Representatives. The upcoming November election presents the Democratic Party with the best opportunity to win the House since they lost it during the GOP wave in 2010. Democrats point to recent successes in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania—as well as a slew of flipped state legislative seats across the nation—as proof that they will be in the majority come next January. A historic number of Republican retirements have only boosted the Democrats’ morale. However, control of House is far from definite for the Democrats, as they face issues in their own primaries and will be forced to defend their own seats.
Democrats are not wrong that they have momentum. Not only have the Democrats won recent special elections, but they received a boost from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court when the court redrew the state’s congressional map, guaranteeing that Democrats gain at least one or two seats. Nationally, President Trump’s consistent failure to maintain an approval rating above 40 percent, and his continued alienation of educated, suburban, and female voters only further help the Democrats. Moreover, Democrats are doing better at a district-by-district level. In the final fundraising quarter of 2017, forty-six Republican incumbents were outraised by their Democratic challengers, highlighting the enthusiasm gap that came to fruition for the Democrats in the special election in Pennsylvania’s eighteenth district when 67 percent of Democrats came out to vote versus only 60 percent of Republicans. Moreover, a string of a Republican retirements, like that of New Jersey Congressman Frank LoBiondo and Washington Congressman Dave Reichert, has put traditionally-GOP-held seats into play. The Republicans’ retirement headaches may not yet be over, as there are recent reports that Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA03) and Congressman Leonard Lance (R-NJ07) are considering retiring after seeing the result in last week’s special election. This would make these already competitive seats even more likely to flip blue.
[pullquote]Democrats are not wrong that they have momentum.[/pullquote]
Despite clear advantages heading into November, electoral success for the Democrats is anything but certain. There are many factors that could keep the GOP in control of the lower chamber and leave the Democrats locked out of power in D.C. for at least another two years. The first is the Democrats’ identity crisis that is sure to come up in numerous overcrowded Democratic primaries. The moderate and liberal wings of the party are still settling scores from the 2016 presidential primaries, a fight that has already played out in Texas’ seventh congressional district when the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sent out a memo attacking Laura Moser, a more liberal candidate endorsed by the Bernie Sanders-affiliated group Our Revolution. Moser and her supporters saw the attack as the moderate D.C. establishment attempting to undermine a progressive candidate. Texas Democrats are now set for even further division as Moser and fellow Democrat Lizzie Fletcher are set to face off in a bloody campaign in the May 22nd runoff.
[pullquote]There are many factors that could keep the GOP in control of the lower chamber and leave the Democrats locked out of power in D.C. for at least another two years.[/pullquote]
Extending the Bernie V. Hillary debate of 2016 is not the only detriment these primaries have on Democrats’ chances this November; the party faces several overcrowded primaries that spread fundraising money thin and force candidates to spend money in primaries that could be used against their Republican opponents in the general election. In Virginia’s tenth congressional district, where Congresswoman Barbara Comstock’s conservative agenda and record of voting with President Trump 97 percent of the time her have made her one of the most vulnerable incumbent Republicans in the House, there are seven Democratic candidates running in the primary to challenge her. Of those seven, five raised over $100,000 in the final quarter of 2017 and three raised over $200,000. However, none of the candidates outraised Comstock’s $488,764. Some candidates, including leading fundraiser Alison Friedman, had to spend over $200,000 just to stay afloat in the primary. While it is unfair to say that all the money going to one candidate would go to another Democratic candidate in that same race, it is likely that having fewer candidates in the race would increase fundraising and limit spending–thus leaving the Democratic challenger with more money than Comstock.
Another issue Democrats face is that they are not the only party on the offensive this cycle. Some seats currently held by Democrats are also up for grabs this November. For example, in Minnesota’s first congressional district, incumbent Congressman Tim Walz is retiring to run for the Governorship. Donald Trump carried this district by 15 points in 2016 and the absence of a democratic incumbent could flip this seat red. Similarly, in Nevada’s third congressional district, first-term Congresswoman Jacky Rosen is running for the Senate, leaving this Trump-won seat open and ready for the GOP to take back in 2018. It is a seat important enough for the President himself to take notice, recently tweeting an endorsement of GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian, who lost to Rosen in 2016.
[pullquote]The seven months between now and election day is an eternity in politics.[/pullquote]
It is still too early to tell who will control the chamber when the 116th Congress is sworn in next January. On the one hand, the momentum is on the Democrats’ side. There is more enthusiasm among Democratic voters—a key factor in any midterm election—and the number of competitive GOP seats at this point in the cycle is a good sign for the Democrats. On the other hand, Democrats have been overconfident of victory before, only to be heartbroken on election night. The seven months between now and election day is an eternity in politics; it is entirely possible for the Democrats to blow the slight edge they have now. The political landscape can change both on a national and a district-by-district level, impacting seats crucial to either party’s chances of winning the House. Ultimately, the road to the House is not a national election–it is 435 local ones, each of which can change at any time.
Arik Wolk ‘21 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at arik.wolk@wustl.edu.