The Second Syrian Civil War

[su_pullquote align=”right”]Assad will win his war by 2020.[/su_pullquote]Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will win his war by 2020. Iran and Russia, whose forces now constitute most of Assad’s armies, have successfully protected his regime and the Syrian statelet. Opposition forces—what’s left of them after the fall of Aleppo in December 2016—are disunited and weak. And the West, which did little in the beginning of the war in 2011, will remain ineffectual because of their lack of interest. So much for “never again.”

But what’s ironic about this entire calamity is that even with the war soon to be behind us, such a catastrophe will happen again. This is because the man who caused the first civil war, Assunities, fear of Sunni backlash should his minority government step down, and desire to stay in power, the Dog of Damascus will cling to his seat for dear life. Such increased repression will yield expected outcomes.
[su_pullquote]The Dog of Damascus will cling to his seat for dear life.[/su_pullquote]

But this claim requires nuance, especially since over half the population has fled sinad, will remain in power. Because of his fear of retaliation from the domestic and international commce the start of the conflict. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, over eleven million people have fled Syria since 2011. Most who remain likely have Alawi, Ismaili, Druze, or other minority backgrounds; this is because, according to expert Nikolaos van Dam, of their historically better treatment under the Assad regime, incentivizing them to stay. As constituents in a post-war Syria, they would sooner prevent another war than start one.

Despite the support of these groups , more bloodshed is likely in the 2030s. The regime will couple its preferential treatment of certain ethnic groups with enhanced surveillance and even more violence. This could come in the form of what Syria’s compatriot, Iran, has tried: the removal of satellite dishes, the jamming of cell towers, and more. What better to stop revolts than tools designed to hamper communication?

And for Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, another Syrian war will be a chance for Iran and Saudi Arabia to increase their influence. Iran has done this through the funding of pro-Assad Shia militias hailing from countries as near as Lebanon, with Hezbollah, to as far as Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia has funded major rebel groups like Ahrar al-Sham.

Groups like the Islamic State will rise again, out of the harsher treatment remaining Sunnis will experience once Assad regains full power. For the West and the greater Middle East, another war will mean more terrorist attacks and refugee crises. And because they’ll govern better than the Syrian state, Syria and the countries around it will have to deal with Syrian problems. Both the oppressive Syrian state and the murderous terrorist groups will lead millions to flee uninhabitable circumstances, only to be hated by their hosts for trying to find normal lives.

What can Syrians and the world do to stop this bloodshed? Toppling Assad now is not an option, as both Russia and Iran have much more power to keep him in than the rest of the world does to throw him out. Assad is guaranteed to oppress his people like never before once the war is finished. And he will refuse to open economically to the West because he knows that we will use this influence, in the form of sanctions, against him.

So, the only option is regime change—from the inside. The West must deliver on promises jettisoned years ago: to support the opposition, in whatever form it may be, in centralizing itself and overthrowing the war criminal. Conscious, inclusive, and considerate dialogue must be the norm for correspondence between any coalition of countries and rebel groups.

[su_pullquote align=”right”]Syrians will continue to die until the international community recognizes that oppression is never the fault of the oppressed.[/su_pullquote]
It isn’t important that the Syria that emerges from this collaboration be an all-inclusive Western-like liberal democracy that ensures such death will never occur again. To expect such a thing is quixotic at best and ignorant at worst. Baby steps need to be taken.

What is important is to understand that when the oppressed free themselves, there is no right way of doing it. Syrian culture is Syrian culture, so the result of such coordination will—and should be—Syrian.

To put it in the simplest terms, all the Syrian people want, like any other people, is to live. Assad prevents this from happening. He will continue to prevent this while he is President. So, he must be removed.

Nicholas Kinberg ‘20 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at nicholaskinberg@wustl.edu.