Dummymandering: How Partisan Gerrymanders Could Backfire In 2018
It is no secret that political parties draw congressional district lines to benefit themselves. However, this November there are two states in which this gerrymandering could backfire on each party. Recent political trends and unexpected demographic shifts have changed the makeup of districts in many states since the district lines were drawn in 2010. This could end up hurting the party that had drawn the lines to help themselves. In Illinois, Democrats could miss out on two prime pickup opportunities to take back the House, while in New Jersey, the Republicans’ attempts to manufacture GOP districts may end up with slim Democratic victories come November. If these gerrymanders do backfire, both parties may find themselves with a “dummymader”.[su_pullquote align=”right”]Recent political trends and unexpected demographic shifts have changed the makeup of districts in many states since the district lines were drawn in 2010.[/su_pullquote]
In Illinois, Democrats had control of the pen when redistricting took place after the 2010 census. They had control of both houses the state legislature and the Governor’s mansion, giving them unilateral power over redistricting. Democrats attempted to expand their congressional power beyond the Chicago metro area. They drew two downstate districts with the hope of claiming two congressional victories beyond Chicagoland. The twelfth congressional district was drawn to include the heavily Democratic St. Clair county and the leaning-blue city of Carbondale, where Democrats hoped their voters would outweigh the rural GOP voters also in the district. In the thirteenth congressional district, Democrats hoped to combine the Democratic college towns of Champaign, Urbana, and Bloomington to counter the Republican-leaning farmland in the district. While both districts were swept up in the Republican wave of 2014, they should, in theory, remain in-play for Democrats. However, both districts swung heavily towards Donald Trump in the 2016 election. The twelfth district went for Trump 55-40 after Obama won it 49-48, and Trump won the thirteenth district 50-44 after Obama only lost it by a point. The blue-collar voters of each of these districts whom Democrats used to rely upon to win are now reliable Trump supporters.
National Democrats have targeted these seats in their 2018 campaign, but both could prove to be out of reach if the rural voters who came out to vote for Donald Trump in 2016 turn out again this November. Democrats have strong candidates in each of these seats, particularly in the twelfth district where they recruited St. Clair County Prosecutor Brendan Kelly, but failure to capture either of these seats could destroy Democratic hopes of retaking the House. Democrats likely need to win two of the four close seats in Illinois this year to remain competitive nationwide. While the 6th district in the Chicago suburbs is looking optimistic for Democrats, they will likely need one of the downstate seats. If the political trends in these districts continue as they did in 2014 and 2016, however, Democrats may have dummymandered themselves out of an easy House seat.[su_pullquote]Failure to capture either of these seats could destroy Democratic hopes of retaking the House.[/su_pullquote]
New Jersey’s redistricting process is one of the nation’s most complex. It is also politically confusing in that it creates the illusion of bipartisanship, while in reality it is one of the most partisan processes in the country. There is a bipartisan state redistricting commission with six Democrats, six Republicans, and one independent tiebreaker. Both parties submit redistricting plans and the independent tiebreaker ultimately makes the decision which plan to use, thus ensuring a partisan plan is used.
During the 2010 redistricting cycle, the Republican plan was selected. It was designed to create six Democratic seats and six GOP seats–hardly a representative sample for a blue state. The plan began to backfire on the GOP in 2016 when Democrat Josh Gottheimer defeated Rep. Scott Garrett in the 5th district. 2018, however, could be the year where the plan comes apart at the seams for the GOP.
Four of New Jersey’s five GOP-held seats are considered to be competitive this cycle. The second congressional district, currently held by retiring Congressman Frank LoBiondo, is considered to be a definite pickup for Democrats, while the third, seventh, and eleventh districts are toss-ups. All of these have a Partisan Voter Index rating of R+2 or R+3, meaning they voted only two or three percentage points more Republican than the average congressional district in the last few presidential elections. They only narrowly supported Donald Trump in 2016–with the exception of the seventh district, which supported Hillary Clinton by 3,600 votes. They are the exact types of district Democrats are positioned to win in 2018: wealthy, well-educated, and suburban.[su_pullquote align=”right”]Four of New Jersey’s five GOP-held seats are considered to be competitive this cycle.[/su_pullquote]
Republicans drew these seats to ensure they would win elections in these districts by narrow margins, thus maximizing the impact of their voters, while Democratic voters were packed into already solid blue seats. 2018 could be the year this backfires on the New Jersey GOP. They may have spread their voters too thin, only giving their candidates marginal partisan advantages in their seats–advantages that may be too small to survive a Democratic turnout surge in November.
Arik Wolk is a sophomore in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at arik.wolk@wustl.edu.