One Person, One Vote(?)
Developing the Constitution of the United States was not easy. A testament to political engineering, the Constitution had to strike a balance of federal representation between its largest and smallest states. The compromise between these states meant that an upper chamber, the Senate, would consist of two senators per state while the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, would apportion representatives based on each state’s relative population.
Like most things in politics, this bicameral legislature was just a deal between two parties – smaller states wanted equal representation in the Senate, and larger states wanted proportional representation. At the time, having malapportioned representation in the Senate was not too consequential. According to the first census of the United States in 1790, the country was home to fewer than two million people that were somewhat well-distributed across the sixteen states. At the extremes of the population continuum were Virginia, which accounted for about nineteen percent of the country’s population, and Delaware, which accounted for about 1.5 percent. Since both states were entitled to two senators, a Senate vote in Delaware was worth about thirteen times more than a Senate vote in Virginia.
In 2018, the map of the United States is quite different. Most obviously, there are more states. More importantly, the population is much less uniform across the 50 states. The most populous state, California, accounts for about twelve percent of the country’s population. Meanwhile, the least populous state, Wyoming, accounts for less than 0.2 percent. As a result, a Senate vote in Wyoming is worth about 70(!) times more than a Senate vote in California.
According to Census Bureau demographic projections, population inequality between states will continue to grow. By 2040, half of the United States population will reside in just eight states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Illinois, and North Carolina. In other words, sixteen senators will represent half of America.[su_pullquote]By 2040, half of the United States population will reside in just eight states. 16 senators will represent half of America.[/su_pullquote]
Nearly 72 percent of United States citizens in seventeen states will be underrepresented in the Senate compared to the average American voter.
The six senators of California, Texas, and Florida alone will represent over 30 percent of the country. Meanwhile, 68 senators from the 34 least-populous states will also represent 30 percent of the country.
[su_pullquote align=”right”]Nearly 72 percent of United States citizens in 17 states will be underrepresented in the Senate compared to the average American voter. [/su_pullquote]The centralization of people in cities has played a major role in the diminishing population uniformity in America. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, urban population growth is accelerating across the globe. Currently, about 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas. By 2040, that number will increase to over 86 percent. It might be no surprise, then, that of the twenty largest metropolitan areas in the U.S., twelve of them are located in the aforementioned eight states. Furthermore, seventeen of the twenty largest U.S. metropolitan areas are located in the seventeen underrepresented states.
The partisan effects of these changes are not clear. Theories such as “The Big Sort” claim that Americans are increasingly sorting themselves by ideology, and it is no secret that Democrats tend to cluster in urban areas. For instance, after the 2012 presidential election, researchers at the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto found that the density of an area was strongly correlated with votes for President Obama.
However, not all of these ever-growing states are as left-leaning as California or New York. As the 2016 election proved, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are still quite purple. However, growing minority populations in these states – like the Hispanic population in Texas or the African American population in Georgia – might be favorable for Democratic candidates in the future.
Maps aside, it is important to recognize the critical roles of the Senate. The Senate has the power to approve treaties made by the executive branch. It also has the sole power to conduct impeachment trials and approve presidential appointees to executive and judicial branch posts like the Supreme Court. And in a federal government that is perpetually gridlocked, legislative duties on polarizing issues have become increasingly offloaded to the Supreme Court.[su_pullquote align=”right”]To have a minority of the country accountable for a majority of an upper chamber seems flawed at best and irresponsibly anti-democratic at worst.[/su_pullquote]
To have a minority of the country accountable for a majority of an upper chamber that has fundamental roles in shaping foreign policy and presidential appointments seems flawed at best and irresponsibly anti-democratic at worst. According to a study of democratic systems in countries across the globe by Steven L. Taylor of Troy University, only Brazil and Argentina have greater malapportionment in their upper chambers compared to the United States. As our country’s population continues to cluster, the Senate will continue to represent an America that no longer exists.
Garrett Cunningham ‘19 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at cunningham.garrett@wustl.edu.