The New Ottoman Empire
Since the end of World War II, Turkey has been a strong U.S. ally. It was one of the targets of the Marshall Plan and was a crucial part of our pre-1991 fight against communism. It joined NATO in 1952, sent troops to Korea, harbored U.S. missiles, cooperated with pro-U.S. Middle Eastern states, hosted American military bases, and, ultimately, stood with Washington in most major 20th century conflicts.
[su_pullquote align=”right”]76% of Turkish citizens hold an unfavorable view of the American people.[/su_pullquote]However, this has begun to change. A recent Pew study found that 76% of Turkish citizens hold an unfavorable view of the American people. The world has changed since the Berlin Wall fell and we entered the post-Soviet age. And accompanying the end of communism, the politics have changed as well. Recently, we have seen a departure from the amicable interactions of the last three-quarters of a century. While you might think this trend is simply a response to President Trump’s hostility towards many of our allies, this has been a trend since the mid-1990s and has become even more pronounced under Turkey’s current President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
[su_pullquote]Turkey no longer feels the same existential threat from Russia it once did.[/su_pullquote]Turkey is ultimately not as aligned with the U.S. as it used to be. The reasons for this are complicated, but I think they boil down to two main points. First, Turkey no longer feels the same existential threat from Russia it once did, and second, the country’s politics are increasingly shaped by Islamic fundamentalism.
Russia is Turkey’s nearest major neighbor, which shapes Turkey’s foreign policy. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviet Union made several claims to Turkish territory, mostly along its eastern border with Georgia. The USSR was extremely expansionist during this time, and Turkey, as a NATO member, impeded many of its strategic goals.
Turkey occupies one of the most important strategic positions in the world because of its exclusive access to the Bosporus Strait, the narrow stretch of water that splits Europe from Asia and the Black Sea from the Mediterranean. Access through here is imperative to Russian foreign policy. Russia has historically lacked a warm water port, and many of its expansion efforts, particularly in Crimea and the exclave of Kaliningrad near Poland, have focused on the ability to project power with its navy. During the Cold War, containing the Soviets in the Black Sea was important to keep them from expanding their power in the Mediterranean. Should conflict break out, a pro-western Turkish government would allow quick deployment of U.S. forces either in Southern Europe or the Arab states.
But since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Russia does not seem as threatening as it once was. While Putin’s expansions in Ukraine and Iran are worrying, nuclear war doesn’t seem very likely. Putin’s government has been relatively friendly to Ankara, with Russia becoming Turkey’s number one energy provider and Turkey remaining a major tourist destination for Russians. Reliance on the U.S. for protection just does not seem as necessary to Turkey as it once was.
Complementing this shift in priorities, Turkey’s government seems intent on pursuing policies that harken back to the days of the Ottoman Empire as Ankara’s influence independently expands in the region. Under Erdogan’s rule, the country has turned away from the secular liberalism of its founder Mustafa Kemal. Islamic fundamentalism is creeping into the daily politics of the country, with, for example, consistent references to Turkish military actions in Syria as a Jihad. Many of these actions have been against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. While Turkey is a majority Muslim nation, the Turkish government has been historically secular, in contrast to nations like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Under Erdogan, however, Turkey has begun to take an active stance towards becoming the dominant power in the Middle East.[su_pullquote align=”right”]Turkey has begun to take an active stance towards becoming the dominant power in the Middle East.[/su_pullquote] The increasing importance of Islam in state rhetoric appears to hint at Erdogan’s desire to at least wield influence over his Arab neighbors, pushing the U.S. out of the affairs of the region. In Erdogan’s mind, the shared religion of the region and Turkey’s history as the Ottoman Empire, serves to give reason for Turkish influence of local politics.
Erdogan’s regime is on a collision course with the United States. Increasingly hostile rhetoric and actions are straining our relations. Turkey refused to allow the U.S. to use its airbases in the 2003 Iraq War, demanded the extradition of a Pennsylvania man it claims helped orchestrate the 2016 coup, placed tariffs on our goods, and took some stances in support of the Iranian government. While these events will likely not lead to direct conflict between our two countries, this drift away from American influence will put pressure on policymakers to continually develop relations with other actors in the region. Should a conflict like the one in Syria break out elsewhere, Washington and Ankara may find themselves supporting opposing forces.
Jacob Ramer ‘21, studies in the Olin Business School. He can be reached at jacob.b.ramer@wustl.edu.