Two Years Of Shutdown In Northern Ireland

The 35-day shutdown in Washington seemed to last an eternity, but it was a blink in comparison to the current government shutdown in Northern Ireland. On January 7 of this year, Northern Ireland celebrated an embarrassing two-year anniversary of government shutdown, with no end in sight. It is now the longest government shutdown in world history. Why has it gone on so long, and is there a way back on track?[su_pullquote align=”right”]On January 7 of this year, Northern Ireland celebrated an embarrassing two-year anniversary of government shutdown, with no end in sight. It is now the longest government shutdown in world history.[/su_pullquote]

Northern Ireland has experienced decades of violence and conflict between two factions: nationalists, who want to leave the United Kingdom and join Ireland, and loyalists, who want Northern Ireland to remain in the UK. These groups have been fighting each other for years, marked by numerous acts of terrorism. In 1998, to broker peace and give Northern Ireland greater autonomy, the UK Parliament created a devolved government in Northern Ireland. However, the objective was not just to grant autonomy, but to balance power between unionists and nationalists. To do this, Parliament created a very unusual system. Northern Ireland would be governed by the Northern Ireland Executive, headed by two individuals with equal power and status: the First Minister and the deputy First Minister. One is required to be a unionist, the other a nationalist. This arrangement allowed both sides to have a say in governance, and would hopefully force the parties and ministers to work together. After all, the rules say the country cannot run with just one First Minister.

However, this arrangement also had a great weakness. The Northern Ireland Executive was headed by two equally powerful politicians who were required to be bitter political foes. Disagreements could quickly result in a stalemate. To counteract this, the UK Parliament maintained the ability to establish direct rule over Northern Ireland. In times of political crisis, Westminster can suspend Northern Ireland’s government and assume control until a compromise is negotiated. Since intense disagreement and gridlock is common in Northern Ireland, direct rule has been enacted several times.

Two years ago, these elements came together to create an unsolvable disagreement. The two largest parties in Northern Ireland are the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)—a loyalist party, and Sinn Féin—a nationalist party. The loyalist-aligned parties have held the majority in Northern Ireland since the creation of Northern Ireland’s government. In late 2016, investigations discovered that a renewable energy policy in Northern Ireland had enabled fraudsters to take hundreds of millions of pounds from the government. The program, which had been going on for years, had been overseen by the DUP’s Arlene Foster, who became the First Minister. She refused Sinn Féin’s calls to resign. In retaliation, Martin McGuinness, the deputy First Minister and leader of Sinn Féin, resigned. Since Northern Ireland must be governed jointly by two First Ministers, the resignation automatically forced Foster from her position. When the DUP nominated Foster to retake her position as First Minister, Sinn Féin refused to nominate a successor to fill McGuinness’ vacancy. This prevented the formation of an executive and began the long government shutdown.

So, why hasn’t Parliament simply assumed direct rule? In June 2017, early in the shutdown, Theresa May called for a nationwide snap election, and she expected that this election might resolve the situation without the need for intervention. Instead, a shocking result occurred: May’s Conservative Party lost its majority and now needed to rely on the support of the DUP to maintain control in Westminster. As a result, direct rule is politically unfeasible. The DUP is opposed to many policies that are law elsewhere in the UK, such as same-sex marriage and legalized abortion. Direct control would potentially implement these policies in Northern Ireland. To maintain power in Parliament, Theresa May must forego direct control and allow Northern Ireland’s government to remain shut down.

Is there a way to end this gridlock and bring back the Northern Ireland Executive? It seems unlikely, at least for the coming while. Northern Ireland would be fundamentally affected by Brexit due to its border with Ireland. The currently open border could be subject to any number of impactful new trade and movement regulations, depending on the outcome of ongoing Brexit negotiations. Until the uncertainty of Brexit has been resolved, the opposing parties in Northern Ireland will struggle to negotiate. Even once the fate of Brexit becomes known, a compromise may still be far off, since the political effects of any Brexit outcome will likely introduce new problems to negotiate. Even when this government shutdown is eventually resolved, as long as the nature of Northern Ireland’s politics and its unique form of government remain the same, there will almost certainly be another shutdown looming in the distance.

Alexander Newman ‘20 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at newmana@wustl.edu.