After The War In Afghanistan
The year is 2029. The U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan in 2022, ending the Afghan war.
This had been a long time coming. The U.S. invaded Afghanistan over twenty years prior, in retaliation for the September 11th attacks. After President Bush’s initial campaign failed to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003. Bush pulled resources away from Afghanistan to stabilize Iraq, and for six years, the largest terrorist haven on the planet was put on the backburner while another such haven—again, Iraq—was being created.[su_pullquote align=”right”]The year is 2029. The U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan in 2022, ending the Afghan war.[/su_pullquote]
In December 2009, President Obama announced a surge in troops to finish the job in Afghanistan, parallel to U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in December 2011. He also promised, like Bush, to provide more foreign aid to neighboring Pakistan, in the hopes of enticing the nation to assist in the campaign in Afghanistan rather than supporting the Taliban. Although Pakistan didn’t change its behavior, Seal Team Six was able to kill al-Qaeda’s former leader, Osama bin Laden, in May 2011. Little, however, changed on the ground.
By August 2017, after an entire president’s tenure had passed without progress, President Trump announced another surge in troops, this time pressuring Pakistan by threatening to strengthen ties with Pakistan’s nemesis, India. Unfortunately, results were like Obama’s and Bush’s. So, withdrawal—and failure—were inevitable.
According to The Balance, by 2022, the war had already cost us over $1.1 trillion. Staying in Afghanistan would’ve cost taxpayers ever more. Trump’s successor argued for “Afghanization,” turning control of Afghanistan from the U.S. military over to the Afghan National Army. Reminiscent of Nixon’s “peace with honor,” the U.S. would leave the country to its native American-trained force by 2022, hoping that the Afghan government would be able to negotiate with the Taliban rather than continue to fight.
Results were disappointing. Within a year of U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban returned from rural areas to overwhelm cities. Eventually, they took the capital, Kabul, and killed all high-level Afghan government officials. Those in the lower levels were forced to pledge their allegiance to the Taliban. 2022 looked a lot like the 1990s. The worst misfortune was just beginning.[su_pullquote]Within a year of U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban returned from rural areas to overwhelm cities.[/su_pullquote]
With the withdrawal of the U.S. came the withdrawal of all other foreign forces, except those allied with the Taliban. In 2029, those allies still include Russia, Iran, and Pakistan. India, upon losing its influence in the Afghan national government, allied itself to the Taliban as well.
With this defeat of the greatest superpower in history, the global jihadist movement was emboldened. The Islamic State, though defeated, was the harbinger of its predecessor: al-Qaeda. Since U.S. forces left in 2022, operatives have been rebuilding their training camps. Moreover, they’ve been strengthening their connections with other al-Qaeda franchises in Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Libya, and India. They know that an attack against the U.S. will most certainly result in another invasion, so they’re biding their time. They have consolidated their network and are making certain that this next act will result in another invasion and bleed the Republic even more. Because of upgraded security all throughout the West, al-Qaeda believes that their next strike lies not stateside, but in one of the U.S.’ allies. They plan for London 2030 to dwarf Paris 2015.
And with that invasion will come another dearth in resources. If the U.S. invades again, the 2030s will belong to Russia and China. Russia will extend itself deeper into eastern Europe and China will strengthen ties with neighbors, as well as menace Taiwan.[su_pullquote align=”right”]If the U.S. invades again, the 2030s will belong to Russia and China.[/su_pullquote]
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The end of the Cold War was supposed to be the end of history. With the fall of the Soviet Union, free markets and free people were supposed to prevail. Yet in the forty years between 1989 and 2029, the world has, if anything, become more dangerous. Non-state actors can fly planes into buildings, make homemade bombs to explode at concerts, and take over entire swaths of territory from legitimate governments.
President Bush promised to stop these “terrorist killers” in the wake of the September 11th Attacks. Yet since 2001, the number of terrorist attacks in not just Afghanistan, but all over the world, has increased, according to Our World in Data. And with the U.S.’ attention focused on the Middle East, other crises have flared: in Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary and Poland, North Korea, India and Pakistan, and the South China Sea. With the exhaustion of Iraq and Afghanistan still hanging over our Republic, it is necessary, but unlikely, that we will meet our obligations in these places. To quote Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, “the jungle has grown back.”
Nicholas Kinberg ‘20 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at nicholaskinberg@wustl.edu.