Going Towards And Away From Democracy
On March 24, Thailand will hold its first elections since a 2014 coup made General Prayut Chan-ocha the Prime Minister. Currently, Thailand is ruled by a military junta. This isn’t the first instance of junta rule in Thailand. Since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, Thailand has experienced twelve coups, more than any other country. The reasons for this instability are complex, but the events of the past twenty years in Thailand can help provide a better understanding of the current problems with Thailand’s electoral rules.[su_pullquote align=”right”]Since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, Thailand has experienced twelve coups, more than any other country.[/su_pullquote]
One of the most influential figures in Thai politics is former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The founder of the Thai Rak Thai party, Thaksin became Prime Minister in 2001 with broad support for his populist platform that focused on redistributing wealth towards the poor. However, by 2005, Thailand was in a political crisis. Thaksin was mired in a massive corruption scandal and faced political opposition for human rights abuses and abuse of power in major policies like a harsh war on drugs. The People’s Alliance for Democracy movement formed a strong opposition to Thai Rak Thai and there were widespread protests. This crisis eventually resulted in a 2006 military coup that removed Thaksin from power and forced him to flee the country. Thaksin’s party was banned from politics.
Thaksin’s exile did not end his influence on the country. Thaksin’s platform remains popular with many voters, although a sizeable minority find Thaksin and his allies to be unacceptably corrupt. The military also views Thaksin’s popularity as a threat to their power. When new elections were held in 2007, the PPP, the successor party to Thai Rak Thai, won. Almost immediately, the new prime minister was accused of being Thaksin’s puppet, leading to another political crisis. Thailand’s Constitutional Court eventually dissolved the PPP, which gave the opposition Democrat party control of the government. In the next election in 2011, Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, won a landslide victory and became prime minister. Once again, there was a political crisis. The Constitutional Court removed Yingluck from power in 2014 and shortly after, Prayut Chan-ocha used the military to seize control. Thailand’s democratic history is extremely complicated, as the results of elections frequently clash with the rulings of the Constitutional Court and the will of the military.
[su_pullquote align=”right”]In an extreme subversion of democracy, Prayut could potentially suffer a landslide defeat at the polls and still become Prime Minister.[/su_pullquote]However, this cycle of conflict may come to an end with the new election. The ruling junta modified Thailand’s process of electing the Prime Minister. Previously, voters elected 500 members to the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives then chose a Prime Minister. The House also selects members to serve in the Senate. Senators did not participate in choosing the Prime Minister. This time, however, the Senate does get to help choose the Prime Minister. And one other small change: all 250 senators in 2019 will be chosen by the military. With this change, current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha seems likely to win. If he will have the full support of the Senate, which is likely, he will only need 176 of the 500 seats of the House to support him. In an extreme subversion of democracy, Prayut could potentially suffer a landslide defeat at the polls and still become Prime Minister.
Besides the military and courts, Thailand’s election commission has the power to influence elections with its extremely strong campaign restrictions. This year, the commission banned political posts on social media that contain anything more than basic information such as a candidate’s picture, name, biography, and party. To avoid violations, many candidates quickly took down their Facebook profiles and went dark on other social media as well. Under the complex rules, even a simple campaign activity like a speech can only be delivered at specific places and times. In the past, candidates have even been banned from using microphones or promising to implement policies. Although these rules seem outlandish, violations can potentially cause a candidate to be disqualified. These restrictions have led to a weakened democracy in Thailand.
In a final complication to the 2019 election, Princess Ubolratana was nominated as a candidate by the Thaksin-aligned Thai Raksa Chart party earlier this year. Although the princess had previously given up her royal title, the involvement of a member of the royal family in electoral politics was unprecedented. She was quickly banned from the election. There were even greater consequences: on March 7, the Constitutional Court dissolved Thai Raksa Chart. This ruling will surely be controversial. Was the court acting to prevent royal involvement in politics, or was this simply a convenient excuse to get rid of a Thaksin-aligned party? The dissolution of a major party just weeks before the election adds even more confusion to an already complicated election. Even though the March 24 elections will transition Thailand from military rule to democracy, Thailand’s democracy seems to be in a more precarious position now than it has been in years.
Alexander Newman ‘20 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at newmana@wustl.edu.