City on Fire
Going into the 17th week of unrest (as of this article’s writing), Hong Kong has been one of the most long-lasting international political spectacles of this summer. With both sides using smear campaigns at times, it is almost impossible to fully understand the current situation of Hong Kong without actually being there (and even that can still be confusing). So instead of arguing which side is right or which side’s excessive use of violence is more justified, this article aims to take a glimpse into the possible conclusion of the movement.
First and foremost, regarding the Five Demands raised by the protesters:
- Withdrawal of the Extradition Bill. This is so far, the only demand met by the Hong Kong government in September, widely viewed as an attempt to give some concession to calm the situation. Sadly, this gesture is considered too little too late, exerting no visible effect on the movement.
- Form an outside inquiry on the police’s use of force. This is considered by many to be the only other possible concession by the government. While both Hong Kong and the Chinese government favor the police force, giving in on this clause would be the least painful. Sadly, even if a committee is formed for this investigation, it’s more than likely that it still won’t be enough—it would be too late, and be painted as corrupt by both sides.
- Drop all charges of those arrested during the protests;
- Retract defining the movement as riots;
- Have Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s current Chief Executive, step down.
Very few actually believe that these demands can be met. They’re simply too damaging and too costly to the authority of the government. For example, releasing thousands of the arrested, some of whom show serious tendencies for violence, could refuel the passion of the movement and give people the impression that no matter what course of action they take, they will not be arrested or charged. Furthermore, as many state-controlled media indicated, Beijing views giving in on these demands as a slippery slope, with any signs wavering on behalf of the government authority leading to a color revolution.
So it would seem that no matter how the government reacts to these demands, it will not satisfy the protesters, and they likely know this. Then why would the protesters continue to fight for either an unsatisfactory or unlikely cause? One popular speculation is that the core activities are using these relatively moderate demands to attract the silent majority and garner international support for their end goal: a totally democratic, sovereign Hong Kong. This is certainly not a farfetched theory: demand for Hong Kong independence and direct election of the Chief Executive has been echoed during multiple protests, and during the March to the US Embassy on September 8th protesters even asked president Trump to help liberate them (among many similar calls for outside support).
Then assuming that forming a democratic country separated from China is the endgame of the protest leaders, how likely would that be? Zero. While the protesters may fantasize an outside force to help them achieve independence, it’s extremely unlikely that any country would attempt to intervene with more than restrained criticism. Case in point, many protesters implored all attending states of the Osaka G20 meeting to address this issue, yet except for the PM of Japan, Shinzo Abe, no national leaders, including Donald Trump, mentioned the events in Hong Kong even as an afterthought. Even in an unlikely scenario that a country decides to help with Hong Kong independence with action, it’s still doomed to fail. Since China has the world’s largest standing army and the 4th largest nuclear arsenal, military intervention is certainly out of the question. As for trade and economic pressure, the only country capable to seriously dent China’s economy—the US, is already engaged in a trade war, with China showing more resilience than scholars of both sides anticipated. That combined with the fact that it’s practically political suicide in China to even suggest letting Hong Kong gain independence due to nationalism and Hong Kong’s connotation in China’s colonized history, makes whatever the protesters have in mind for Hong Kong simply impossible.
So now both parties are at an impasse: neither willing to back down, with no compromise to be brokered. But at the end of the day, the government is most likely to triumph: in fact, it is perfectly possible that a crackdown could happen before Oct 1st (China’s National Day), and nothing could be done about it. An independent and democratic Hong Kong, while ideal to some, is not going to happen.