WashU Could Make Missouri a Swing State Again

Believe it or not, Missouri used to be a swing state. It’s hard to imagine given its clear current lean toward the Republican party, but for presidential elections between 1904 and 2004, Missouri went for the winning candidate in all elections but one, regardless of whether they were a Democrat of Republican, a conservative or a liberal 

But things have changed in recent years. Few political commentators seriously consider Missouri to be a swing state anymore, and the last presidential election in which Missouri went for a Democrat was in 1996, for Bill Clinton. Of the last three presidential elections, Missouri has been wrong twice, voting in 2008 for John McCain and in 2012 Mitt Romney instead of for Barack Obama. With these recent incorrect predictions taken into account, the state of Missouri now has a voting record similar to that of Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico. Its voting accuracy is likely to get worsen. What happened?

One factor is demographics. As the country’s immigrant and minority populations have grown, Missouri’s whiter population less and less closely resembles the nation as a whole. While the rest of the United States became more racially and ethnically diverse, Missouri remained largely white. Missouri—a state no longer representative of the nation in its entirety—is thus no longer as accurate in predicting the national trend in presidential politics. Additionally, Missouri’s two largest cities—Kansas City and St. Louis—have declined in population as manufacturing jobs have left the state. And not by a little—the population of St. Louis is currently less than it was in 1900, and has declined by nearly two-thirds since its peak in the 1950s. While Missouri may have represented the nation as a whole throughout history, the decline in its proportion of urban residents makes it less accurate at indicating national trends. Not only is the composition of Missouri’s population unrepresentative, but where it lives is as well. 

Perhaps the glory days of Missouri and St. Louis are over. Having recently lost our city’s beloved football team, it can be difficult to see a path to revitalizing what was once an industrial center and the historic gateway to the West. 

[pullquote]Central to any rebound for the city of St. Louis is WashU.[/pullquote]

But WashU in particular may present a path forward. As one of the largest employers in St. Louis, the continued success of WashU as an institution is a critical and stable lifeline for the prosperity of St. Louis. WashU is already gaining increasing national recognition as a top research university with a massive endowment, expanding its reputation as a “Harvard of the Midwest.” While we students may laugh at this Olin-esque marketing phrase, such branding could be key in revitalizing not only St. Louis, but Missouri as a whole, potentially restoring its status as a swing state in presidential elections.

I’m going to engage in an optimistic thought experiment for how WashU might bring about St. Louis’s revival.. Let’s consider one possibility:

Chancellor Martin is one of the best chancellors WashU has ever seen. Throughout his tenure, tuition declines, low-income student enrollment soars, and WashU’s reputation expands to the point where it is a standard recipient of applications from the nation’s top students. The students, drawn by the beautiful campus, welcoming Midwestern environment, rigorous academics, and top-notch research opportunities, enroll en masse. Admissions become more competitive, creating a cyclical interaction in which competitive admittance signals a strong academic environment, enticing more students and students of higher caliber to apply, thus making admissions even more competitive. 

WashU truly embraces its nickname and becomes the Harvard of the Midwest. The chief focus of the massive eight-billion-dollar endowment shifts to investment in local businesses, offering incentives for former WashU students to set up shop in St. Louis. Careful investing combined with the brilliance of the top-class WashU students and their university-sponsored startups brings success to their companies and economic revitalization to the area. The returns on WashU’s investment cushions the endowment even more, providing further opportunities for development.

As the first few start-ups grow into success, St. Louis’s population expands dramatically. For the city, tax dollars grow, funding a complete re-design of public transport with a focus on clean and sustainable energy. St. Louis emerges on the national scale as a liberal hub, attracting young adults and immigrants determined to make it their lifelong home. St. Louis and Chicago become the twin cities of the Midwest and competitive statewide elections return once more to Missouri. And the revival has one institution to thank: Washington University in St. Louis. 

It may not happen now, or in a few years, or ever. But imagination is the driver of innovation and progress, and picturing WashU at the center of both the revival of St. Louis’s and the re-emergence of Missouri as a player in presidential politics—that’s an appealing thought. We can turn it into a reality.