What A Dynasty’s Defeat Means for the Democratic Party
On September 1st, 2020, for the first time in the history of Massachusetts, a Kennedy lost a statewide race. After a long, and often nasty, primary battle, the incumbent Democratic senator, Ed Markey, managed to win his primary against Joe Kennedy III. Even though the two politicians were competing for a seat that is considered safely Democratic, the primary was still one of the most consequential elections of the 2020 cycle. In an unusual reversal of roles, it was Kennedy, the young challenger to the senior incumbent, who proved to be the moderate in the race and the favorite of much of the establishment, including Speaker Pelosi. Meanwhile, Markey ran as the insurgent progressive. For Kennedy, the race was a chance to affirm the strength of the establishment and his family name, while for Markey, it was about proving the popularity of progressive policies and the wing’s growing power in the Democratic Party.
For much of the race, it seemed as if Kennedy was unbeatable, aided by his name, campaign spending, and support from much of the establishment. Markey, meanwhile, struggled to get enough signatures to have his name put on the ballot and often trailed Kennedy in the polls by double digits. It seemed as if his youthful opponent had already won. Markey appeared to be on the road to defeat. If he were to turn his fortunes around, the senator needed to do something drastic, and do it fast.
While Kennedy portrayed himself as the fresh face his state needed, Markey decided to run as the progressive underdog taking on the establishment. He attacked Kennedy for being yet another politician from a dynasty, contrasted Kennedy’s upbringing with his own working-class origins, and touted his support for one piece of legislation that would prove crucial in energizing supporters: the Green New Deal. For much of his career, he had been a reliably liberal congressman, but not one who stuck out for his progressive policies. In fact, he even voted for several pieces of legislation the left has long detested, such as the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act (or “Crime Bill”), NAFTA, and the bill authorizing the Iraq War. In other words, he was a typical Democrat. However, in 2019, he managed to change his legacy in the eyes of progressives by cosponsoring the Green New Deal with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
As Markey began touting this on the campaign trail, the gap between him and Kennedy began to close. Young people, a voting bloc whom Kennedy had hoped to perform well with, began shifting their allegiance to Markey, impressed by his environmentalist stance and relationship with AOC. Not only did the Green New Deal put him in the good graces of Massachusetts youth, but it also motivated organizations on the left to make sure that Markey won his primary. The Sunrise Movement in particular, an environmentalist political organization whose ranks are made up primarily of younger activists, made reelecting the senator its top priority.
Getting an endorsement from this group is no easy feat. Candidates must fill out a questionnaire, be invited to interview with the group’s national political team, and if they want any realistic chance of earning the endorsement, support the Green New Deal. With Markey meeting the most important criterion, volunteers flocked to his campaign. They were crucial in generating Markey’s social media following, the Markeyverse, and, according to Varshini Prakash, the founder of Sunrise, the organization made 200,000 phone calls for the senator. Their efforts paid off, as they managed to turn a struggling campaign into a winning one, with voters under thirty, who voted for Markey over Kennedy by forty points, being of particular importance. While this is only one victory for the Democrats’ progressive wing, its repercussions could be substantial.
[pullquote]If Markey’s victory has proven one thing, it is that progressive ideas, particularly the Green New Deal, are popular within the Democratic Party and those who will lead it in the future: young people.[/pullquote]
If Markey’s victory has proven one thing, it is that progressive ideas, particularly the Green New Deal, are popular within the Democratic Party and those who will lead it in the future: young people. By reinventing himself as a progressive icon, Markey was able to energize his supporters, taking a lead in the polls in August and winning his primary by ten points. While Kennedy’s name may have given him the advantage early on and helped him among older voters, it failed to sway younger ones. Wooed by the message of environmentalism and populism that was the core of Markey’s message, this demographic handed the Kennedy family its first-ever loss in Massachusetts. They are part of a new generation of Democrats: one whose mission is to mitigate the worst effects of the climate crisis before it is too late, and is motivated to get its candidates into office. If the energy that young voters had for Markey translates into votes for other progressives, then the Democratic Party will soon be radically altered.