A New Decade, and a New Cold War

The year 1950 signified a new decade in geopolitics. With the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the struggle between democracy and communism took full effect. The new world order reigned supreme, with both the U.S. and Soviet Russia at its helms. Yet elsewhere, in Asia, two future superpowers were taking shape.

That same year, the Dominion of India secured independence from the United Kingdom and adopted a republican government under its new, self-determined constitution. Two thousand miles away, the bloody Chinese Civil War resulted in the formation of a new state: the People’s Republic of China (PRC). 

Ever since that year, both nations have had repeated border conflicts; the Sino-Indian border in South Asia is considered to be the world’s longest disputed border, straddling the Himalayan mountain range. Kashmir, the specific region of South Asia where much of the border struggles have occurred is divided into three administered zones by Pakistan, India, and China. In October of 1962, after India granted asylum to the Dalai Lama and months of diplomatic rejections for Chinese settlements in Kashmir, the PRC invaded into the disputed area. In just one month, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China captured, killed, and wounded around 8,000 Indians before opting for a military ceasefire on the “Line of Actual Control” (LAC), a negotiated demarcation line that separates the Indian territory of Ladakh with the newly acquired Chinese territory of Tibet. Even with military and intelligence assistance by both Western and Soviet allies, India’s loss pushed the nation to rapidly militarize in Kashmir to not only mirror their Chinese neighbors, but also hold their own ground. The Sino-Indian war was the last time these nations ever came into conflict, with only a handful of border clashes for the rest of the century.

2020 – exactly seventy years later – marks the beginning of another decade that might have instrumental consequences. The coronavirus pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China, toppled the global economy and only further strained Western and Chinese relations. China’s incessant debt-trapping of third-world nations, the inhibition of the democratic values of Hong Kong, and a constant desire to assert control in Southeast Asia, has left many with an unfavorable view of the PRC. Yet even with all these concerns, the multiple skirmishes over the Sino-Indian border has quickly dominated global headlines.

With both nations seeking to develop more infrastructure in Kashmir, the construction of a new road to a high-altitude airbase by the Indian government was allegedly perceived by the PRC as an aggressive maneuver to assert air supremacy. In mid-June, an engagement that resulted in the death of twenty Indians and an unknown number of Chinese casualties was argued by both sides as being provoked by the other. In August, India accused China of continuing to provoke border tensions which was only followed by a Chinese accusation of Indian troops firing on their Kashmir zone in September. Although United States intelligence estimate only twenty Indian casualties to the PLA’s thirty-five, these developments are a sharp contrast to the half-century of relations between India and China and signify something much more concerning for the future.

China and India make up around forty percent of the world’s population, and as two nations projected to soon become the world’s largest economies, any conflict between them is guaranteed to create a massive disruption for Asia. History often repeats itself and the 2020 military standoff between these two nuclear powers mirrors the tensions of the 20th century Cold War. In an era that is touted to be a time of globalism, an increase in military tensions between these two countries is discordant with the theme of maintaining peace. 

With relationships already strained between the U.S. and the PRC, it is not hard to imagine that any escalated Sino-Indian conflicts will lead to intervention by the world’s largest military power – the U.S. – and its long list of allies. In fact, in July of this year, the US and India held a joint naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal, just five hundred miles from the Sino-Indian border. In just a few months, the foundation for a new Cold War is set, one that once again pits democracy against communism on paper but is really a conflict between economic and military powerhouses. 

In a world where direct, combative relationships between nuclear powers is restricted and globalism is prioritized for economic gain, no sensible leadership will seek to engage in battle. Ever since 2016, however, the rise of international populism has led to a concern that this notion of sensibility might be pushed aside for nationalistic and ethnic gains; Kashmir will certainly be a testing point of this as communications between the more populist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of India and authoritarian Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are projected to dictate all of the tension in the region.

There is hope, and that hope comes in the form of precedent. The 2020 skirmishes between these two nations is nothing new and is vastly less concerning than the 1962 Sino-Indian war. In addition, since the 1980s, several diplomatic talks between both parties have resulted in a commitment towards maintaining order. Whether or not future dialogue leads to mutual prosperity, another Cold War, or a full-blown escalation is left like many other decisions, in the hands of politicians and the constituents that elect them.