Recently, much has been said of the United States entering a second Cold War, but this time with China. This idea draws casual parallels between China and the Soviet Union—namely, that they are both non-liberal democracies with formidable military power and non-Western cultural ideologies—and then presumes that history is repeating itself, making a Second Cold War inevitable. 

However, a closer view of history reveals two important distinctions. First, the 20th century Cold War is an inappropriate analogy for the 21st century U.S.-China relationship. Second, and most importantly, history shows us that the future is malleable. We are not slaves to a deterministic cycle of history. Instead, we can learn from history and harness its lessons to create the future we want. 

There are several reasons that the Cold War is an inappropriate and dangerous analogy for the future of U.S.-China relations. First, the U.S. and China are the world’s largest economies, and their economic fates are deeply intertwined. In 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. and China did nearly $385 billion in trade—even after recent trade wars, decoupling efforts, and COVID-19. ‘Chimerica,’ a term coined by Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick, was used for much of the 2010s to describe their symbiotic relationship. 

Uncle Sam was not nearly as friendly to the Soviets. 1989 was their best trade year in the US Census Bureau database, with nearly five billion dollars in trade. Adjusted for inflation, that is around $10.5 billion—a mere 2% of the $385 billion the US did with China this year alone. This level of economic integration makes Cold War 2.0 illogical for both sides. 

International geopolitics is also dramatically different in 2020. Post-WWII, much of Europe was in ruins, territories in Africa and Asia were newly independent, and Latin America was reeling from a century of U.S. interventions. While there was never direct combat between the U.S. and U.S.S.R., the Cold War was very hot for many countries. The Cold War was as much an ideological conflict as it was militaristic, as both superpowers attempted to form power blocs and exert influence over countries worldwide. Both sides backed various governments and rebellions, and dozens of proxy wars raged throughout the 20th century. 

Today, many countries are proving to be hesitant to join one side or another. Members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a 138-member group of countries across most continents that receive Chinese investment, are reluctant to join the U.S. against China. Even allies such as South Korea are hesitant to choose between the two. In a world without Cold War-style power blocs, it is difficult to declare a Cold War 2.0. 

We are not entering another Cold War, and it’s a mistake to adopt such a mentality. In a rapidly warming world reeling from COVID-19, an arms race and ballooning defense budgets are the last things the world’s two most powerful countries need to embrace. Flirting with conflict is dangerous for both sides, as any direct or proxy military conflict between the two would be incredibly deadly. Pouring economic and intellectual resources into creating new methods to kill people is precisely the opposite response that a world desperate for climate action needs. We as a species face an existential climate crisis that requires cooperation over conflict. 

Climate change forecasts over the next 30 years look increasingly grim. The Institute for Economics and Peace recently found that “nearly 1.2 billion people live in areas that are not sufficiently resilient to withstand ecological threats.” The U.S. Department of Defense identified climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ in 2014, saying that climate change  promises to exacerbate and accelerate migration and violence trends globally. 

In 2019, China and the U.S. accounted for 40% of global greenhouse emissions. Both have taken climate action seriously, with China aiming to hit peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, and President-elect Joe Biden vowing to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement on his first day. We are not entering a second Cold War, and both countries should prioritize working together towards the common good. 

Combating climate change requires global cooperation. A warming Earth affects all humankind, irrespective of nationality or ideology. There will be water wars, droughts, famines, and refugees. China and the U.S., the two most powerful countries, will need to come together to help humanity weather this storm. 

Using history to analyze the present allows us to release ourselves from the shackles of the past and frees us to collaborate, imagine, and discover new possibilities. Today, China and the U.S. can choose to work towards a future of cooperation or conflict. It is our choice to make, and, in the face of humanitarian crises and existential threats, cooperation is our best option.

Julian McCall ’23 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at j.c.mccall@wustl.edu.