The Sunshine State Embraces the GOP
With two national controversies behind her and the ability to count mail-in ballots before Election Day on November 3rd, Florida was poised to deliver quick results that evening. As Joe Biden lead in critical counties home to Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Jacksonville, Wilmington was abuzz with news that he might flip Florida’s 29 invaluable electoral votes and force a Biden victory that night. However, when Miami-Dade County, the pearl of Democratic votes in Florida, reported a dramatic swing in favor of the President, the Biden camp knew their chances had collapsed. Hundreds of thousands of Republican votes from the Panhandle sealed the deal, and the President cemented a decisive four-hundred thousand vote victory in a state that had once been home to the thinnest of razor-thin margins.
So why did Democrats lose a consistently close state by such a decisive margin? An autopsy of Biden’s defeat reveals that signs of a decisive GOP victory were evident, despite polling showing otherwise. Two years before the 2020 presidential election, a Blue wave swept the United States’ midterm elections, elevating dozens of Democrats to the House of Representatives and reclaiming a majority there for the first time in 8 years. While other swing-states like Pennsylvania and Michigan saw Democratic candidates defeat Republican challengers for governorships, Republican Ron DeSantis triumphed over the popular Mayor of Tallahassee, Andrew Gillum. DeSantis, an unabashed supporter of President Trump, made several missteps throughout his campaign, including airing a controversial advertisement of him teaching his toddler to “build the wall” and accusing his African-American opponent of trying to “monkey this up,” a statement many in Florida took to be racially charged. But when the votes were counted, DeSantis emerged victorious, despite record turnout and enthusiasm among first-time voters for Gillum’s progressive policies. The concurrent Senate election tells a similar story; outgoing Governor Rick Scott ousted Bill Nelson, a three-term incumbent who had once rocketed to space from Florida’s own Kennedy Space Center. The political repercussions of two GOP challengers prevailing over their popular Democratic opponents, despite a national shift left, should have been recognized by national pollsters and the Biden campaign.
It seems unlikely that the Sunshine State, and her ever-increasing slate of electoral votes, will leave the spotlight anytime soon.
Florida’s unique demographics help explain Trump’s victory in a state marked by an increasingly diverse population. The President narrowly carried several counties in Florida’s I-4 corridor, an area increasingly populated by white retirees. In Sumter County, the retirement community known as The Villages has experienced explosive population growth as the elderly flock to Florida’s sunshine and humidity. With turnout in Sumter County routinely topping national and state charts, Trump visited The Villages numerous times in the weeks before November 3rd. When the electoral dust had settled, he had won nearly 70% of the vote in Florida’s fastest growing metropolitan region. Despite pollsters suggesting that Governor DeSantis’ failure to curb coronavirus spikes in the state would cut into the President’s support among the elderly, older voters still turned out for Trump, proving to be an essential element of his victory. In Florida’s most populous county, Miami-Dade, Trump added nearly two-hundred thousand votes compared to his performance in 2016, a powerful swing he can attribute to increased support among Cuban Americans; while Cuban Americans have always slanted more towards the GOP compared to other Latinx groups, their dash to support the President catapulted him to a victory in Florida. Their heavy support compared to 2016 can be attributed to the Trump campaign’s sustained attacks on Biden’s endorsement from progressive politicians. Branding him a socialist, Trump courted Latinx who oppose the Communist regime in Cuba. In fact, he nearly swept a majority of Latinx ballots, garnering 47% of their votes compared to Biden’s 52% according to a New York Times exit poll. With such success among minority populations and more Republican votes to come from the conservative Panhandle, news of Miami-Dade’s rightward swing ended hopes of a Biden victory in the state.
The Republican inroads made in Florida during the Donald Trump’s presidency should give Democrats concern for a Blue victory in further elections. While it remains to be seen if the same rightward movement among Cuban Americans is reflected in other Latinx populations, Democrats must campaign with caution if they seek to win over the essential demographic in future contests. As the media begins to cast a spotlight on Governor DeSantis as a potential contender for the 2024 Republican nomination, it seems unlikely that the Sunshine State, and her ever-increasing slate of electoral votes, will leave the spotlight anytime soon.