Josh Hawley: Next GOP President or Pariah?

January 6, 2021 will live in infamy as the day armed insurrectionists stormed the U.S. Capitol in a futile attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Most of the coverage has appropriately focused on then-President Donald Trump’s role in inciting the violence and his subsequent impeachment by the House of Representatives. But the day may also be the turning point in Sen. Josh Hawley’s political career―the moment he took the reins as the de facto leader of the Republican party and new conservative movement or, more likely, the moment he saw his political fortunes crater.

On December 30, 2020, Hawley (R-MO) became the first senator to challenge the certification of the Electoral College’s vote to elect Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States. Though he was soon joined by several other senators, most notably Ted Cruz (R-TX), it was Hawley who spearheaded the charge. While Democrats lambasted his actions and the GOP establishment quietly grumbled about prolonging the inevitable Biden victory, the far-right celebrated Hawley’s move. It appeared he had finally taken up the coveted mantle as the new face of Trumpism. Hawley’s desire to remake the modern GOP has been in the works since his Senate tenure began. While his colleagues on Capitol Hill had taken notice of the freshman senator’s zeal, most of the country had yet to pay him much attention. Contesting the election enabled Hawley to burst into the public eye and stake his claim as the new champion of the MAGA movement. Then, on the day of the Electoral College certification, after Hawley tweeted his plans to challenge (and raised his fist in solidarity with the protesters), America witnessed the first breach of its Capitol building since 1814. Five people died in the riots, including a Capitol police officer. It was a pivotal day in our nation’s history, and one that will forever be tied to Hawley’s actions.

“January 6 was a pivotal day in our nation’s history, and one that will forever be tied to Hawley’s actions.”

Hawley represents a new Republican archetype. The senator combines a sterling résumé (degrees from Stanford and Yale, a clerkship for Chief Justice John Roberts) with devout social conservatism and extreme economic nationalism. Fiscal policy is what truly sets Hawley apart from the traditional Republican orthodoxy. Oftentimes he more closely resembles democratic socialist Bernie Sanders than limited government advocate Paul Ryan. For example, shortly before he objected to the Electoral College certification, he joined the Vermont senator in calling on Congress to pass $1,200 COVID relief stimulus checks. He frequently crusades against staggering income inequality and the plight of small-town America as jobs move to big cities and/or overseas. His most notable positions are his hardline stances against China, especially since the pandemic, and Big Tech, which he argues has far too much power and monopolistic control over the country. On the surface, Hawley most closely resembles fellow senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), a Harvard grad who espouses similar protectionist policies and rhetoric. But Hawley is a much better politician than the stiff, awkward Cotton. In many ways Hawley is most similar to Fox News primetime host Tucker Carlson. Both are polished speakers, with the potential to liaise between the elite establishment and general public while spouting a unique mix of populist economics and traditional conservative values. Perhaps Hawley was always the most likely political figure to succeed Trump as the face of the new Right. On paper, he certainly has the most going for him: Trump without the crassness, Cruz and Cotton with more likeability, and Carlson with political experience. He has the policy chops of any veteran Republican politician without the neoconservatism that has quickly gone out of style.

Perhaps Hawley will still be the face of the modern GOP. Despite committing a variety of heinous acts, Trump went on to win the presidency and enjoy record approval from his party. If anything, Trump’s eschewing of conventional wisdom and political correctness is what won him his base. The decision to challenge the electoral certification, even after the deadly riots, may yet prove to be a shrewd one for Hawley. For the time being, however, it has severely harmed his reputation with all but the country’s most ardent Trumpists. New polling shows his approval rating is underwater in Missouri, shocking given that Missourians voted for Trump by a 15% margin. Reports describe him as a pariah in Congress, including among his own caucus. Many colleagues have called for his and Cruz’s expulsion from the Senate. His mentor, former Missouri Sen. John Danforth, called supporting Hawley “the biggest mistake I’ve ever made.” Responding to public outrage, publisher Simon and Schuster terminated his book deal and Loews Hotels cancelled his reservations for a February fundraiser. Advocacy groups such as the Lincoln Project and Meidas Touch have taken aim at Hawley in the form of digital advertising and billboards.

“The decision to challenge the electoral certification, even after the deadly riots, may yet prove to be a shrewd one for Hawley. But for the time being, it has severely harmed his reputation with all but the country’s most ardent Trumpists.”

Hawley has thus far doubled down on his decision to contest the 2020 election results. He has turned much of his attention to berating and impeding the new administration; so far, he has voted against all of Biden’s cabinet nominees. This posturing points to a likely run for higher office, similar to that of Kirsten Gillibrand and Cory Booker at the start of the Trump era. Hawley’s ambition became apparent to his friends and colleagues during his undergraduate college years. He clearly has the intelligence and political talent to elevate his novel policy profile into the political mainstream. Ardent backers of Trump and Trumpism certainly seem excited to have a fresh young face devoted to their cause. But while that might be enough for Hawley to keep his seat in the Senate, or even win the Republican presidential nomination, the events on January 6 are seemingly too repulsive for most Americans to support him going forward. Ultimately, Hawley’s gambit likely failed. The photographed fist pump to assembling insurrectionists may have sealed his fate as a pariah both on Capitol Hill and the country writ large.