Democrats Control Washington Again. What’s Changed and What’s on the Horizon?

For the first time in a decade, the Democratic Party has control of the presidency and both chambers of the U.S. Congress. After flipping the House of Representatives in 2018, the party ousted Donald Trump from the White House and won two Senate run-off elections in Georgia to capture the trifecta. In these days of extreme partisan gridlock, complete control of the federal government is the best and perhaps only way to advance a party’s legislative agenda. When Republicans last controlled the executive and legislative branches, they achieved many conservative priorities, most notably enacting the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that cut corporate and high-income tax rates and repealed Obamacare’s individual mandate. Outside of emergency COVID relief, however, very little was accomplished under the most recent divided Congress. 

Joe Biden’s policy promises were perhaps the most progressive of any presidential candidate in over half a century. Their passage and implementation would represent a significant shift to the left for the Democratic Party. Given Biden’s moderate political persona and his voting record on issues like deregulation and crime, it’s surprising that he would be the figurehead of such a transformation. Yet Biden has regularly aligned himself with the consensus of the party, and the party itself has significantly shifted to the left in recent years. As interesting as the shift in the Democratic Party’s policy positions is the question of what comes next in terms of elections and personnel. Biden is 78 years old and may not seek a second term. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn are all in their 80s and have signaled that this will be their last cycle serving in leadership. Top Senate leaders Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, and Patty Murray are in their 70s, as are former presidential candidates and progressive mainstays Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The imminent departure of the current Democratic establishment will leave a power vacuum that must be filled.

Democrats held trifectas for the first two years of Bill Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s presidencies. The first midterm cycles for both resulted in massive losses for the party, respectively ushering in Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” conservatism and the Tea Party movement. However, both administrations were able to enact significant legislation during the two years they did control the government. President Clinton signed into law a number of progressive policies passed by the Democratic Congress, most notably the Family and Medical Leave Act, the Earned Income Tax Credit Expansion and the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act. That said, the Clinton administration also spearheaded and approved the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act (co-authored by then-Senator Joe Biden) and the North American Free Trade Agreement, policies that are generally opposed by today’s leftists. 

President Obama was sworn into office alongside 257 Democratic representatives and added a filibuster-proof Senate majority once Arlen Specter switched parties and Al Franken was finally seated. In addition to a number of social and financial reforms passed in his first two years―most notably the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, the Matthew Shepard Hate Crimes Prevention Act, the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Repeal Act, and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act―Obama’s two main legislative accomplishments were the Affordable Care Act and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The stimulus package was signed into law in February 2009. Despite near-universal party support, the $831 billion price tag was lower than what many liberals wanted and economists suggested. By comparison, the American Rescue Plan that Biden plans to sign into law with full party support will spend over $1 trillion more than Obama’s recovery package. 

Just as Democrats are embracing a more liberal fiscal policy, party support has risen for more government intervention in health care. Democrats ultimately got the 60 Senate votes they needed to pass Obamacare; however, the final bill had no public option and 39 House Democrats voted against it. By contrast, every House Democrat voted against the 2017 American Health Care Act, the Republican attempt to repeal the ACA. Today, the Democratic caucus overwhelmingly supports expanding Obamacare to include a public option, as evidenced by Senators Tim Kaine and Michael Bennet’s new proposal to do just that. 

Personnel within the Democratic Party has changed significantly since the last two trifectas. Conservative and rural Democrats are almost extinct due to a steep decline in ticket-splitting. As recently as the 2008 election, Democrats won Senate seats in deeply red Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Alaska. All of those races were lost in the 2014 and 2020 election cycles. Today, only three Democrats hold Senate seats in states that Donald Trump won. One of them is Joe Manchin of West Virginia, widely considered to be the most conservative Democrat in Congress. But even he is calling for a $4 trillion investment in U.S. infrastructure, proving that every member of the party is shifting left. In the House, the notoriously moderate Blue Dog Caucus is only about half as big as it was a decade ago, and has become much more socially liberal. Conversely, the Progressive Caucus is nearing 100 members and has watched its influence grow as more high-profile representatives begin to join. Overall, the party and its voters have dramatically shifted to the left in the past 30 years, particularly on the issues of health care, guns, and immigration. 

So, what’s on the horizon for the Democrats? Electorally, they face a major structural disadvantage, and it may be getting worse. Though the Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election since 1992, the Electoral College keeps the Republican Party competitive at the national level. Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million total votes, but Donald Trump came within 65,000 votes of winning a majority in the Electoral College. Democrats also face extreme geographical disadvantages in Congress. In the Senate, elected Democrats represent 41.5 million more people than Republicans, but hold the same number of seats. Due to the gerrymandering of Congressional districts, a 4.6 million national vote advantage could only muster a four-seat majority for the Democrats. Redistricting alone could cost the party any chance of retaining the House in 2022, especially given that the party out of power tends to perform much better in midterm elections. The 2024 Senate map features incumbent Democrats in three red states (West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio), five narrow Biden states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada), and only two conceivable pickup opportunities (Florida andTexas). The Democratic Party will struggle to maintain electoral power without either significant gains made in the Sun Belt, the return of Rust Belt voters to its coalition, or the passage of democracy reforms like the ones included in the For The People Act. 

Wade Wilson ‘21 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at wadebwilson@wustl.edu.