The state of Missouri, once regarded as a political bellwether, is now considered a safe Republican state by most Americans. In the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump won the state with 56.80% of the vote compared to President Joe Biden’s 41.41% of the vote, a 15.39% margin of victory. However, compared to 2016, the state actually shifted left, as former President Trump defeated Hilary Clinton by 18.4% in the 2016 presidential election. The state, however, did not uniformly move towards the Democratic nominee, rather national trends continued to shift different parts of the state in different directions.

Just a decade ago, Missouri used to be very competitive for both parties. Former Senator Claire McCaskill last won the state in her 2012 re-election campaign, in which she won by 15.4% against Congressman Todd Akin. Akin made many controversial comments mentioning “legitimate rape” which allowed McCaskill to easily win re-election on the same ballot as former President Barack Obama who lost the state by 10.3%. In the 2008 presidential election, Republican nominee John McCain only won the state by a margin of 0.13%, or 3,000 votes over former President Obama. 

The shift from a swing state to a deep red state follows national trends of rural areas, which were historically more favorable to the Democratic Party, turning completely to the right. Senator McCaskill was first elected in 2006, winning by a slim 2.3%. McCaskill was later defeated in 2018 by then Attorney General Josh Hawley. Looking at the margins between McCaskill and her opponents in 2006 and 2018, two specific regions of Missouri shifted hard to the right.

The counties of Jefferson, Ste. Genevieve, Iron, Washington, and Reynolds were some of the most populated swings towards the Republican Party from 2006 to 2018. These counties compose the “lead belt,” a mining region that leaned towards the Democratic Party for down-ballot races over the last fifty years. The lead belt showed strong support for President Jimmy Carter, President Bill Clinton, and other down-ballot Democrats even in elections where the region ultimately voted for Republican presidential candidates. McCaskill won all of these counties in 2006, but lost all of them in 2018. This trend is not limited to Missouri. Other mining regions, such as Southwest West Virginia, Eastern Arizona, and Northern Minnesota have taken a sharp turn to the right in the last two decades. These regions used to be Democratic leaning due to the prevalence of unions for these mining jobs. Over time, as cultural factors became stronger factors for political decisions and union membership declined, the lead belt and other mining areas took a sharp turn to the right.

Another region that took a sharp turn to the right is the Bootheel of Missouri, composed of Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot counties. These counties, unlike the rest of Missouri, can be considered culturally Southern, and share more in common with neighboring Arkansas and Tennessee. This region has a high percentage of rural, culturally conservative, white voters who, since the civil war, have continued to vote Democratic. As the Democratic Party moved to the left on social issues in the last two decades, the region has shifted to the Republican Party, with Democrats outperforming with down-ballot races. McCaskill and other Democrats lost this region during statewide elections even though these regions still have Democratic county executives, showing the down-ballot lag for the Party.

On the other hand, Democrats have been improving in the suburban regions of the state. St. Louis county is one place that has taken a turn to the left over the last decade. Missouri’s 2nd congressional district, which was a battleground district in the last election, was only won by former President Trump by 0.8%, while Mitt Romney won this suburban district by 16 percentage points. This district is likely to get more Republican in the upcoming congressional redistricting with the 2020 Census. However, the Democratic improvement in the region shows how Democrats can offset their rural losses in the rest of the state.

The St. Louis and Kansas City suburbs are not large enough to offset the large rural population of Missouri, but it is possible that Democrats can become more competitive throughout state legislature and congressional districts as current trends continue.

Rishi Samarth ‘23 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at rishi.samarth@wustl.edu.