Biden’s Surprise:
Welfare Expansion
By Rishi Samarth

President’s Biden’s first legislative victory was the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, a $1.9 trillion relief bill aimed at targeting the COVID-19 pandemic. The main components of the bill are $1,400 stimulus checks, extended unemployment, $10 billion for vaccine distribution, and $350 billion to bail out state and local governments, along with other spending aimed at keeping the economy afloat. However, the relief package also includes the largest expansion of the welfare state in a decade, including a generous child tax credit and the biggest healthcare expansion since the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010.

 

President Biden, along with fellow Democrats in Congress, touted the relief bill’s plan to “cut child poverty in half.” This tax credit would give families with children under age six $4,000 a year and families with children under age 17 $3,600 a year, split up monthly. This ambitious expansion of the tax credit is one of the centerpieces of Biden’s economic plan, as he plans to make this tax credit permanent with further legislation. Unlike the Obama and Clinton administrations, who balanced economic spending with managing the national debt, Biden seems to want the government to play a bigger role in American’s lives than it has in a while. Some have compared Biden’s economic agenda with that of President Lyndon B. Johnson, whose Great Society programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid have helped millions of lower-income Americans.

 

Surprisingly, the American Rescue Plan also includes the largest expansion of healthcare since the Affordable Care Act. The ARP includes expanded federal subsidies for those buying health insurance on the health insurances exchanges established with the ACA. Now, those making 150% over the Federal Poverty Line qualify for silver plans with zero premiums. The plan also cuts subsidies in half for those making between 200 and 300% of the Federal Poverty Line. These subsidies will help to insure millions of more Americans. Biden’s healthcare agenda does not end here. In his upcoming infrastructure package, he plans to include federal government oversight on drug prices and make his ACA subsidies permanent. Unlike Obama’s strategy of introducing one large healthcare bill like the Affordable Care Act, Biden is attempting a piecemeal strategy, breaking his healthcare legislation up throughout multiple bills. The ACA cost Democrats control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterm elections as Republicans ran heavily against a “big socialist bill,” losing 60 seats in the House.  The Democratic party is avoiding the framing of one scary healthcare bill that changes too much in order to maintain the positive public opinion of their agenda heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

 

Neither Clinton nor Obama engaged in this level of government investment of society, and it will be interesting to see whether future politicians from either party continue or end this investment. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama became presidents in uniquely distinct time periods from Biden when the government was seen to have a different role. Bill Clinton was elected after three consecutive landslide losses of Democratic presidential candidates. He ran to the right of Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter and advocated for a smaller role in government than previous Democrats as the Reagan Era had made lower taxes popular in American society. As such, no major expansions of welfare could happen under the political circumstances. Obama was elected to fix the Great Recession and did so with the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, an $800 billion stimulus bill. However, despite Democrats having control of the House of Representatives and having a 59 seat Senate majority in 2009, conservative Democrats from traditionally Republican areas helped to neuter Obama’s economic agenda. Conservative Senate Democrats removed the public option from the ACA and demanded a provision to cut Medicaid Spending in times of high government spending (PAYGO). The Democratic Party has lost these members due to changing electoral coalitions and now has the votes to enact more expansive legislation.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought more awareness to economic and social inequalities and has made it more popular for government investment to be accepted by the public.  The American Rescue Plan has a 70% approval  rating and Biden’s infrastructure proposal has a 60% approval rating. No longer is the deficit and the national debt a major talking point among voters. This may be seen as a turning point in terms of policy, or a blip in history. Only time will tell.

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