By Rishi Samarth, Staff Writer
Every ten years after the Decennial Census, congressional districts must be redrawn nationwide to account for population losses and gains across different parts of the country. As expected, states like Texas and Florida are growing in population, and have gained 2 and 1 congressional districts respectively, while states along the rust belt like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York have each lost a congressional district due to their stagnating populations. The drawing of congressional districts in each state varies due to state laws, but most states have their elected legislatures and their governors draw new congressional maps. However, congressional maps can be drawn in a way that favors one political party. This process is called partisan gerrymandering, and it is currently legal barring any future federal legislation being passed to address the matter.
Partisan gerrymandering is done by both political parties, but is more often undertaken by Republicans. Therefore in 2018, the tipping point national margin to win the House of Representatives was D+4, meaning that Democrats needed to win the popular vote by 4 points to have a majority in the House. Republican gerrymandering during the 2010 Census prevented Democrats from winning the House in 2012. Project REDMAP was a project of the Republican State Legislature Committee in the 2010 election cycle to win over as many governorships and state legislatures as possible to draw very favorable maps for Republicans for the 2010 Redistricting Cycle. In a wave election, Republicans won state Trifectas in most competitive states, drawing very favorable maps for the GOP. In 2012, as Obama won Michigan by 9 points, he only won over 5/14 congressional districts. This gerrymander was done by packing all of the Democratic leaning voters in the Detroit area into 4 congressional districts, which Obama won by large margins. Another Democratic pack district was drawn in the Tri-cities region, grabbing all the Democratic voters in Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. Working class Democratic voters in rural areas were diluted with conservative republican voters, allowing Romney to win 9 congressional districts.
In this upcoming redistricting cycle, Republicans have many opportunities to gerrymander out Democrats, but are not being as ruthless as they have been in the past. In Tennessee, Republicans can easily draw out Representative Jim Cooper by partitioning democratic voting Davidson County between multiple congressional districts, creating an 8R-1D map.
Similarly in Georgia, a state Biden won, Republicans can combine the Democratic parts of swing districts GA-6 and GA-7 in the Atlanta suburbs to create one safe Democratic district and one safe Republican district, locking in a 9R-5D map for a decade. Currently Biden got 53% of the vote in GA-6th district and 51% of the vote in GA-7, but the Republican state legislature can draw a new congressional configuration that Biden won with 60% of the vote, and another republican seat that Trump got 60% of the vote in. This technique of making swing districts safe for one party is called “shoring up” and is very important for the redistricting calculus, as it prevents more seats from being lost during wave years.
Shoring up incumbents is something Texas Republicans especially need to do. The Austin metropolitan area is currently split between seven congressional districts, and three of those republican representatives Chip Roy, Michael McCaul, and John Carter, represent left trending suburban seats that Trump only won by single digits. Texas Republicans will be forced to draw a safe Democratic seat in Austin to prevent surrounding congressional districts from being won by Democrats in a future wave. However, due to Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, Republicans can also draw a 70% Latino Republican seat in the Rio Grande Valley, converted the current Dem leaning TX-34 to a likely republican seat. In addition, they can add an exurban Dallas seat due to census growth, locking in a 25R-13D map from the current 23R-13D map.
On the other hand, Democrats are starting to gerrymander their own states, keeping potential losses in redistricting lower than previously thought. In New York, new governor Kathy Hochul and a supermajority Democratic legislature are planning to override the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, potentially locking in a brutal 23D-3R map from the current 19D-8R map, potentially drawing out 5 republican members of congress. In Illinois, Democrats plan to draw a 14D-3R gerrymander, from the current 13D-5R map. In New Mexico and Maryland, Democrats can draw out the lone republicans in their delegations, Yvette Herrell and Andy Harris, respectively. Similarly, Democratic governors in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania can veto any unfair maps drawn by the republican legislature, preventing a repeat of what happened in 2010.
In some states, Republican appear to not be as strict with gerrymandering. In Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, and Missouri, republicans can easily draw out Democratic representatives Frank Mvran, Sharice Davids, John Yarmuth, and Emmanuel Cleaver, but appear not to. Republican incumbents in nearby districts do not want to risk taking in more liberal voters into their districts in fear of losing a primary due to these new voters. Congressional redistricting is an inherently partisan process that will determine the possibilities of control for the House of Representatives for the next decade.