Steve Sweeney seemed unstoppable. After nearly 20 years in the New Jersey State Senate, including 10 years as its longest-serving president, he had achieved a reputation as one of the state’s most powerful elected officials. A moderate Democrat, Sweeney held on to his white, working-class district in South Jersey, even as it was won by Donald Trump in 2016. Only one year after the presidential election, Sweeney easily cruised to reelection, weathering a multimillion-dollar campaign to unseat him. Nobody expected 2021 to be any different, least of all Sweeney’s Republican opponent, truck driver Edward Durr – He only spent $2,300 on the entire campaign. Yet, as the results of November’s reflections started to come in, the New Jersey political establishment was shocked – Sweeney had lost his bid for reelection -and to a virtual unknown.
Across the country, Republicans made similar inroads. The Virginia GOP, locked out of statewide elected offices for over a decade, swept them all. In Seattle, where Biden took in nearly 90% of the vote, Republican Ann Davison was elected to the office of City Attorney. In Pennsylvania, Republican Kevin Brobson beat Democrat Maria McLaughlin to win a spot on the swing state’s Supreme Court. Nationwide, Republicans netted 14 legislative seats.
Commentators on the right have been quick to characterize these victories as a rebuke to President Biden’s nascent presidency. Those on the left have blamed moderate Democrats for being unable to come up with a compelling reason to vote for them. Speaking on the topic at a recent campus event, St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones argued, “When you stay in the middle and try to appease everyone, it never works.” A close analysis, however, paints a far more complex picture of American democracy in a post-Trump era.
Yet, as the results of November’s reflections started to come in, the New Jersey political establishment was shocked- Sweeney had lost his bid for reelection – and to a virtual unknown.
Throughout the past decade, American politics have been characterized by an immense polarization. As the parties drift further apart, voters become more entrenched in their political affiliations, and the candidate matters less than the “D” or “R” next to their name. State and local elections have consequently become increasingly nationalized. In 2021, only 10 U.S. states have a governor of a different party than their most recent presidential victor. Just 15 years ago, that number was twice as high.
The impact of this polarization can be seen in the recent New Jersey elections. While only four years ago, South Jersey voters had no problem supporting both Democrats and Republicans, the same may no longer be true today. Jeff Van Drew, who represents almost all of Sweeney’s district in the House of Representatives, no doubt saw this coming when he switched parties in 2020. Almost overnight, Van Drew, a lifelong Democrat, reinvented himself as a conservative Republican with an “undying support” for President Trump.
While New Jersey demonstrates the continuing influence of polarization in America, Virginia seems to show the opposite. Once a Republican stronghold, Virginia has shifted strongly to the left in recent years. The increasingly diverse Northern Virginia suburbs helped to deliver Joe Biden the state’s 13 electoral votes last year, and many expected yet another Democratic victory in 2021. Democrats aggressively nationalized the race, tying Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin to Trump at every possible turn.
While both New Jersey and Virginia trended to the right this election cycle, the two states took wildly different paths.
Youngkin, for his part, effectively balanced bringing out his Trump-supporting base and winning over Biden-supporting moderates and independents. Youngkin’s personal background as a successful CEO and self-described “political outsider” is remarkably similar to Trump, as was the way he capitalized on anti-establishment and populist sentiments. His focus on critical race theory and transgender bathrooms helped to win over wealthier suburbanites. He toed the line on Trump’s claims of voter fraud, running on a platform of “election integrity” while also recognizing the legitimacy of Biden’s victory. His strategy worked: Every single county and independent city in Virginia swung to the right compared to 2020. While most Biden supporters likewise supported Democrat Terry McAuliffe, there were enough ticket-splitters to cost him the election. This seemed to confirm Democrats’ worst fears – that the gains their party made in local and state elections during the Trump presidency might not outlast it.
What does this mean for the future? Frustratingly, very little. Off-year elections are not very good indicators of future election results – Democrats lost the 2020 Presidential Elections in Louisiana and Kentucky, despite winning them in the 2019 Gubernatorial Election. What we can see, however, are broader patterns at play. While both New Jersey and Virginia trended to the right this election cycle, the two states took wildly different paths. In New Jersey, political polarization took more victims. In Virginia, ticket-splitting was shown to not be a thing of the past. Perhaps the most important lesson relates to the unpredictability of politics, even in an era of such gridlock and polarization. Trends can be useful, but elections are decided by the people, and upsets can still happen. Just ask Steve Sweeney.