By Will Gunter
Artwork by Caroline Weinstein

“I don’t want to try to put our troops in all places at all times. I don’t want to be the world’s policeman,” George W. Bush said on October 3, 2000. These closing remarks from the first presidential debate between Bush and Democratic candidate Al Gore are incongruous with the legacy of his two terms in office. Defined by the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, including the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, George W. Bush’s presidency became synonymous with destabilizing wars of regime change, blunders that shaped the political landscape with which the current administration is grappling.

Bush had positioned himself as the dovish frontrunner in the Republican primary that year, while neoconservatives backed John McCain. Yet, after staffing his administration with hawkish apparatchiks who opposed his nomination and seeing the nation primed for war after 9/11, the Texan embodied the world’s policeman role that he had rejected just a year earlier. Despite his wish to focus on domestic efforts in education, tax reform, and healthcare, Bush became a foreign policy president due to forces outside of his control.

By the end of his presidency, however, these forces had turned against Bush. The national outrage of late 2001 was channeled into support for Bush’s wars, but by 2008, the pair of invasions had morphed into sputtering occupations that were hemorrhaging public support. As Barack Obama entered office, most Americans opposed the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. But by that time, partisan affiliation had polarized public opinion. Two-thirds of Republicans approved of the efforts that Bush initiated, even as Obama took control of them, while only a quarter of Democrats were sympathetic.

As the conflicts dragged on, Republican support waned, and in 2016 the party nominated a candidate who called the Iraq war a “big, fat mistake” and negotiated an American withdrawal from Afghanistan. Jaded by two decades of American troops fighting in the Middle East, with little to show for the money and lives lost, the American public turned against interventionism.

So, as Biden entered the Oval Office, military engagement abroad was not on the agenda. The former vice president instead focused on passing social spending and infrastructure legislation to reinvigorate the pandemic-ravaged economy. But like Bush, Biden has been forced to adopt the mantle of a foreign policy president. Charged with executing the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and now coordinating a Western response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the defining moments of Biden’s presidency so far concern matters beyond our national borders.

Yet unlike Bush, the current president must manage the present crisis with limited options. Constrained by public opinion, any direct military involvement in Ukraine seems off the table. According to a February YouGov/CBS News poll, 71% of Americans oppose any American troop deployments to Ukraine. Thus, doing so would put the president, who is already battling low approval ratings, in serious jeopardy for reelection.

Even as Biden has nearly exhausted his choices of non-military deterrence – imposing unprecedented sanctions and banning Russian planes from U.S. airspace – the American public is yearning for a stronger response. Paradoxically, Americans approve of the measures Biden has taken (76% in favor), but 59% disapprove of his handling of the situation nonetheless, indicating a general lack of faith in the president.

Wall-to-wall coverage on TV news and social media has put the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the center of the public’s attention, but it is unclear what the American people want. A YouGov/Yahoo poll from late February showed that Americans ranked the crisis as the top issue for the Biden administration. Aside from imposing sanctions, Americans aren’t willing to get behind any particular response. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that less than half of Americans support sending financial aid to Ukraine giving NATO membership to the country, while about a third prefer no response at all. And as Putin’s invasion continues, Biden is pushed toward more extreme measures to deter Russian aggression, further accelerating inflation through sanctions on Russian oil. 

With only a few months until the midterms, and serious doubts about Biden’s chances in 2024, the president will be desperate to get the public on his side. But currently, he looks set up to fail. As long as Ukraine remains a high-priority issue for voters and Biden’s potential courses of action continue to be unpopular, it is highly unlikely that the administration will bring his approval ratings above water in the foreseeable future.

When George W. Bush became a foreign policy president, he was given carte blanche by the public to issue a maximalist response and ride a wave of support to reelection. Biden, however, must deal with the world that Bush created, battling tied hands on the international stage and poor public approval as the midterm elections threaten the domestic agenda for his first – and perhaps his only – term.