Every 10 years, congressional and state legislative districts are redrawn due to the new census. Redrawing electoral districts is an inherently partisan process, as district maps can be drawn to favor one party over the other. Just before the redistricting cycle began, it was common knowledge that congressional redistricting alone would be enough to erase the Democratic Party’s entire 4 seat house majority. With Republicans in control of redistricting in states like Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia, and independent commissions in states like California and Colorado, it was assumed that Republicans would redraw and flip at least four congressional seats, and Democrats would not be able to fight back. However, Democrats unexpectedly were able to win this round of redistricting, through strategically drawing favorable maps in states they had control in, getting favorable court decisions in Republican-controlled states, and through unenforced errors by Republicans, allowing for a very competitive national house map for the first time in a decade.

Unlike previous redistricting cycles, Democrats gained full control of congressional redistricting in New York, the first time in a century. A series of events allowed this to happen. First, Democrats were able to win a supermajority in both chambers of the state assembly, which allowed them to override any maps produced by the states independent commission. 

Second, former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned due to sexual assault allegations and was replaced by Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul. Cuomo had a history of working with Republicans in the state legislature and would have lobbied against any map favorable for Democrats. Instead, Governor Hochul easily lobbied for a favorable map that would convert the current congressional delegation from 19D-8R to 22D-4R, with New York losing a seat this year. This map would allow Democrats to gain seats in Staten Island, Long Island, and Syracuse. 

Favorable court decisions in states like Ohio and North Carolina also allowed Democrats to gain seats due to Republicans violating the state constitutions. Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment in 2014 which created an independent commission to redraw maps that cannot be “drawn to favor or disfavor a political party.” However, Ohio Republicans still drew a map that would elect 13 Republicans and two Democrats in a state where Trump only got 54% of the vote. The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the map and is requiring a fair map from the legislature.  Ohio’s current congressional maps were very favorable for Republicans and have resulted in a 12R-4D split all decade. A fair map would allow Democrats to win six or seven  seats, which would allow them to offset losses in other states. The North Carolina Supreme Court used a similar precedent to strike down maps drawn by the Republican state assembly that would have elected 11 Republicans and three Democrats in a 50-50 state politically. The interim map released by the court had a 7D-7R split in the 2020 election. These states were expected to produce very favorable maps for the Republican Party, but these unexpected court decisions were very favorable for Democrats. State Supreme Courts, especially those who have elected justices, are becoming a new battleground for redistricting, and GOP redistricting groups are targeting those elections. 

Another surprise for Democrats was Republicans not splitting urban areas in many states to remove Democratic congressional districts. In states like Kentucky, Indiana, and Missouri, Republicans could have easily split the cities of Louisville, Gary, and Kansas City, between multiple congressional districts to prevent these districts from electing a democratic representative. However, incumbent Republicans in neighboring rural districts did not want to take in these new constituents due to general disdain of these urban areas, which allowed these Democratic seats to stay intact. 

Florida, which was widely seen as Republicans’ biggest redistricting weapon, has hit a major roadblock. Republicans could have wiped out three Democratic seats in St. Petersburg, Orlando, and in Northern Florida. After a 2015 lawsuit that struck down and redrew Florida’s Republican-drawn congressional districts, Republican legislators were hesitant to draw a very unbalanced map. However, Governor DeSantis released his own proposal that would convert all three of these Democratic-held seats to seats that Republicans would win. Republican state legislators ignored this proposal, and as such, DeSantis has promised to veto the current map passed by the legislature. This deadlock would most likely be resolved by the courts which would produce a fair map.

Unlike previous decades, Democrats have won the redistricting wars this decade through being aggressive in states they controlled, and through Republicans being unlucky in states they controlled. Even though Democrats are unlikely to keep the House of Representatives after the 2022 elections due to President Biden’s low approval rating, the national House map will be very competitive all decade, not just in midterm elections, which was not the case this last decade.