By Phillip Lisun
On February 24th, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech which declared a “Special Military Operation” in which Russia would pursue a “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine. As he gave this speech, bombs dropped on cities all over Ukraine, and a full-scale Russian invasion began. Uncertainty reverberated across the world as Europe marked its first major interstate conflict in decades. One thing is clear: Ukraine is not the beginning, nor is it the end. This is not just a Russian confrontation with NATO expansionism. This is Putin challenging the international liberal order, also known as the ILO.
In 2005, Putin gave a speech in which he famously stated that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. Putin, of course, viewed this catastrophe in terms of Russian power. Prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Moscow maintained a significant sphere of influence over Eastern Europe. Since the 1990s, this sphere of influence has continually dwindled. The Soviet Union dictated the terms of the international order, or at least parts of it. Russia, however, has fared far worse. Since 1991, the Russians have faced two options: reject the international liberal order or accept the fate of nations like Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea.
The international liberal order consists of institutions ranging from defense institutions such as NATO, to financial institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. Many of the world’s most powerful institutions are headquartered, run, and controlled by western, liberal, and democratic nations. This leaves nations who reject those same ideals, such as Russia, to accept the terms of the ILO or face exclusion and economic calamity.
In his 2007 Speech in Munich, Putin indicated that this challenge is not just about NATO. Russia has made it clear that they view NATO expansionism as provocative (despite it being a defense treaty) but it is not the only international institution Russia takes issue with. Putin points out that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is largely dictated by western liberal governments. Putin is also critical of financial and economic institutions such as the WTO and IMF and has called for major reform. Putin seeks not only to challenge NATO expansionism, but every aspect of the international liberal order from defense to finance to trade.
Sergey Karaganov labels this shift in Russian foreign policy the “Putin Doctrine,” calling it “Constructive Deconstruction.” Russia, a declining economic power, has few options with which to rebuild its sphere of influence and to regain its power to dictate the terms of the international order. Thus, Putin has pursued the desperate option: rebuild his sphere of influence by force. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia, followed by Crimea in 2014, and most recently Ukraine in 2022. Clearly, if the West will not acquiesce to Russia’s requests now, then Russia will continue to expand its sphere of influence until the West accepts Russia’s terms or confronts Russia.
Should Russia emerge victorious in Ukraine, there is no reason to think that Putin will stop. The Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria (which borders Ukraine) is home to 400,000 ethnic Russians and 1,500 Russian troops. Should Putin’s adventurism go even further, he could seek to unite the Russian mainland with Kaliningrad, a small Russian territory nestled between Poland and Lithuania. Today the conflict is in Eastern Europe, but we ought not be surprised when Russia’s challenge comes knocking on our door.
Perhaps Russia’s challenge is legitimate. After all, only democratic, liberal, western-style nations run the worlds’ most important institutions. Russia is not the only nation who has qualms about this. China, Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea have also shared in Russia’s dissent. Yet, we must seriously consider what a world run by Russia or China would look like. The values that authoritarian nations target, representative government, fair elections, and free press, are the values the West upholds. The ILO seeks not only to protect but also to promote these ideals. Thus, the Russia-Ukraine War reaches far beyond the borders of Ukraine through its challenge to the ILO.
Liz Strauss, the current British foreign secretary said, “Ukraine [is] fighting for freedom and democracy, not just for Ukraine but also for the whole of Europe.” I disagree. Ukraine is fighting not just for Ukraine, not just for Europe, but for freedom and democracy across the world. That is what the international liberal order represents – that is what Putin is challenging. We do not get to choose when or by whom we are challenged, but we do get to choose how we respond to those challenges. We can either stand up or bow down to Russia’s attack on democracy and freedom around the world – the choice is ours.