Post-Dobbs Polarization: the Future of the Republican Party
Across the country, thousands of women skipped work and took to the streets on September 30 to protest the recent Dobbs v. Jackson decision. The “Day Without Us” demonstration was an intersectional effort to speak out against the leaked decision. In front of the Supreme Court building, women carried signs reading “SCOTUS Liars”, “Abortion saves lives”, and “Mind your own uterus.” Overall, the sentiment carried was of betrayal and frustration at the protests.
However, this sentiment was not shared by everyone. Representative Chip Roy described Roe v. Wade as a “legal and moral failure” while Director of The Constitution Project at the Project On Government Oversight Sarah Turberville described Dobbs v. Jackson as a “failure to defend the rights of the people.” The linguistic parallel is a reminder of the polarization surrounding the Dobbs decision.
Following Dobbs v. Jackson, divisions have deepened. Democrats remain firmly opposed to the Dobbs ruling and declare it a defiance of stare decisis and the rights of women. On the other hand, some Republicans consider it a major success. While the division between the two parties on the ruling may appear clear, there is some gray area.
Party lines may provide a guideline for opinions surrounding Dobbs, but they are not a definitive indication of preferences. According to Pew Research Center, 62% of Americans disagree with the decision. This cannot be a simple party issue. There are many examples of polarization surrounding this decision.
The most obvious example of polarization surrounding the Dobbs decision is gender. According to Pew Research, 62% of women disapprove of the decision while 52% of men disapprove of it. There are numerous possible explanations for this occurrence, but the two best explanations regard health care and rights.
In terms of health care, the federal right to abortions has been nullified. Women may have to travel to other states to receive an abortion. However, states may bar women from seeking out-of-state abortions. Moreover, health care providers may face uncertainty regarding what forms of reproductive health care they can provide. While women will face more difficulty gaining the reproductive health care they may seek, the decision may also increase stigmas around abortions.
Women’s rights are also called into question because of the Dobbs decision. The individual privacy established by Griswold v. Connecticut is now unprotected in the instance of abortions because there is no constitutional right to abortion. Thus, women are losing a certain autonomy over their own bodies. With this in mind, the polarization between men and women on this issue becomes more clearly explained.
The gender divide resulting from Dobbs is apparent at a smaller scale. For instance, within party lines, the polarization between genders is still apparent. According to the Pew Research Center, 23% of Republican men disapprove of the decision while 36% of Republican women disapprove. The overall sentiment that women share against the Dobbs decision is still apparent in the Republican party even if it is less dramatic. Implications of this division can be seen in election strategies of the party. During primaries, Republican candidates can flex their anti-abortion agendas while rallying support from the majority of the party. However, these agendas become hidden during the general election.
Due to the divide between moderate and far-right conservatives, Republican candidates must modify their agendas to appeal to a broader range of voters. Candidates achieved this by removing anti-abortion rhetoric from campaign websites. The concealment of a candidate’s true ideology can mislead voters. However, given recent trends pointing to uncertainty regarding the midterms and how voters may swing, this strategy may just secure the future of a Republican-controlled senate. Moderate women are turning to the Democratic party as the number of women supporting the Republican party has decreased since June. However, the number of men supporting the Republican party has stayed relatively stagnant since June, implying that the gender gap is widening in an overall harmful way.
Given the polarization surrounding Dobbs and the divisions that it has created within the Republican party, the question of what this means for the party must be begged. Truthfully, the solution of altering campaign websites and carefully choosing messages to voters is a Band-Aid solution at best. If these efforts are enough to preserve support for Republican candidates, and if Republicans gain a clear majority in Congress, abortion will be an immediate topic of discussion on the floor. The divisions within the party surrounding abortion will most likely give way to anti-abortion legislation by the party overall. Female voters who were on the verge of crossing party lines may take this as a sign to flip during the next election. Therefore, Dobbs and the aftermath of it will continue to haunt the Republican party, regardless of temporary promises in an effort to win the midterms.
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