Why Do Farmers Continue Voting Red?
Fields filled with wheat that will never be consumed; livestock dying as the sun beats down on them. The effects of climate change can be seen across the agricultural sector. Between droughts, extreme heat, wildfires, and poor air quality, farmers across the United States have dealt with the impacts of our warming world.
Given the effects of climate change on farmers, the question must be asked if this situation influences how they vote. Traditionally, farmers have voted for the Republican Party. A recent poll by “Mother Jones Daily Newsletter” found that farmers preferred Donald Trump and the Republican party over the Democratic Party by a 3-to-1 margin.
With climate change worsening and the tipping point rapidly approaching, the Democratic Party has recently promoted its climate-centered agenda as a method for gaining votes. Included in this recent promotion is the rejoining of the Paris Climate Accords, passing the health care and climate spending package, and many other initiatives. The question remains if these policies influence how farmers vote.
According to The Washington Post, 80% of farmers believe that climate change is happening. This is a major point of contention within the Republican Party, as only about half of Republicans believe that humans contribute to climate change, with even fewer viewing it as a political priority. Since farmers are more directly affected by climate change, they view it as a larger priority. With this in mind, one must consider if the Democratic Party’s efforts to lessen the effects of climate change would sway farmers’ votes.
Between the blades of grass and the stalks of corn, red and white signs saying “TRUMP 2020” remain across the country and farmers continue to rally behind Trump and his political influence. Therefore, the overall answer to the question of whether climate change is enough to push farmers to vote blue is no. The 2016 and 2020 elections are proof of this phenomenon, as according to Indy Star, almost 70% of farmers voted red in 2016. The question is why: Why do farmers continue to support a party that won’t solve the root cause of their problems?
The first possible explanation centers around trade. Today, farms in the United States operate as major businesses. Instead of working to simply feed themselves and their local communities, farmers are working to feed the world. According to Forbes, 20% of agricultural revenue is from exports. On top of this, export-driven agriculture creates more jobs in the communities where crops are grown. The entire export process requires people working on packaging, storing, and shipping goods, thus creating an entire chain of jobs that operate between the actual production and consumption of crops.
According to the Washington Post, 80% of farmers believe that climate change is happening.
Due to trade’s massive impact on the agricultural industry in the United States, farmers typically prioritize trade policies that favor themselves above all else. The recent trade wars with China were certainly devastating to farmers. While their crops may have been drying out from the climate, their wallets were drying out from harmful trade policies. Since Biden took office, farmers have shifted the blame towards Biden for not improving relations with China.
A second explanation for why farmers vote red is the threat of an estate tax. Farming is a generational trade, meaning farmland is typically passed down within a family for generations, so farmers tend to favor untaxed inheritance. With Democratic candidates such as Hillary Clinton proposing estate taxes, farmers would be forced to pay large sums of money to inherit such massive plots of land. Thus, this is a major deterrent for farmers from supporting the Democratic party.
Perhaps the most convincing reason for why farmers are so dedicated to the Republican party is less logical. People typically have more emotional ties to their party and its beliefs. Farmers have been turning more Republican-leaning in the last decade as rural areas become more strongly associated with the Republican party. 2016 was certainly a tipping point in farmers voting red, in large part from overall dissatisfaction with Obama’s efforts regarding agriculture. Since then, this frustration in rural communities has led them to vote for Republican candidates. However, this trend is relatively confusing due to the lack of assistance that the Republican party gives low-income individuals. For instance, rural communities have the highest Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation in the country, proving how uneven the wealth distribution is. Democrats are typically the ones that support funding such programs; despite this, farmers and their rural communities still vote red.
Regardless of the real reason that farmers tend to vote for GOP candidates, one thing remains apparent: the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do in order to win the agriculture sector’s votes. Perhaps through improved trade policies or greater efforts to relate to rural communities can the Democratic Party regain farmers’ trust.
Jordana Kotler ‘26 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. She can be reached at j.kotler@wustl.edu.