The Journey Down: Demographic Collapse
Overpopulation is, first and foremost, a hoax. For decades we have been fed a vicious lie, that inevitably our planet will fail to keep up with the taxing demands of the human species. However, upon closer scrutiny, the data seem to suggest that we are in fact heading toward population collapse. While it’s true that the world population has more than doubled over the past fifty years, the rate of growth has been slashed by more than half. What’s more concerning is that these numbers also take into account developing countries where fertility rates are still high. We’ll come to see that as nations develop, population decline becomes a far more pressing matter.
People are living longer and having fewer children, and it’s likely to manifest as an economic and humanitarian nightmare if we aren’t careful. It isn’t inherently bad that the population growth rate is sinking. In fact, one of the driving factors of the declining fertility rate is the education of women. Another reason why the mean population age is on the rise can be attributed to advances in medicine and access to resources. While this dilemma may be the result of societal advances, it’s certainly not a “good problem” to have. Our society, both domestically and at large, depends on working-age citizens not only for economic output but also for tax revenue. Social Security in America is a pay-as-you-go system. The government doesn’t simply hold onto the money you give them, only to hand it back later. Instead, the taxes you pay for social security now are outgoing to people currently collecting checks. When you begin collecting Social Security payments, the tax base will fund that too. The problem arises when the non-working, elderly population grows and the working taxpayer population shrinks. Tax revenues go down and beneficiaries go up. It’s like baking a smaller pie for more folks to eat. The result: tiny slices, and people go hungry.
Overpopulation is, first and foremost, a hoax.
So how did this happen? Replacement-level fertility, according to the United Nations, describes the idea that an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to maintain the society’s population. When the fertility rate drops below replacement level, the average age of the population will increase, and eventually the overall population will decline. The fertility rate drops for a variety of reasons, including increased education, access to contraception, norm changes, and environmental concerns. Furthermore, as nations become more developed and less agrarian, having many children can become more of a financial liability than an asset.
While this issue seems in many ways to be unavoidable, there are steps we can take to soften the blow. One way involves reframing our understanding of the world’s demographics. The current prevailing narrative seems to be that we are grossly overpopulated and that there are insufficient resources to go around. However, this seems to be based in myth. The Cato Institute points out that, “global time prices of resources…fell by 84 percent between 1960 and 2018” and that, “the personal resource abundance of the average inhabitant of the globe rose… 527 percent.” Despite the population rising by billions in that period, we see that resources are far more abundant. As such, our culture desperately needs to reframe the population problem.
Despite the population rising by billions, we see that resources are far more abundant.
Economic incentives are a tricky business when it comes to this issue. After all, it seems to be the case that as people become more affluent, they are actually less likely to have children. I would argue, however, that incentivization which purely benefits those who choose to have children may still prove prospective. Increasing child tax credits may be a viable example of this. Another major issue is that it is becoming more and more unaffordable to purchase a home to start a family in. Zoning reform, streamlining permit processes, and minimizing overbearing construction regulations would all help promote increases in housing supply.
Finally, America must seriously consider increasing immigration over time. The United States’ current fertility rate is 1.66, far below the replacement level of 2.1. In fact, the only thing currently keeping our population afloat is immigration. We should actively be seeking out young talent from across the globe and be taking them in to make new lives here, both metaphorically and literally. There are people around the world who want to be in America, and America needs them. Without an influx of outside labor, our economy is bound to eventually wither and rot, right along with our aging population. It doesn’t come without hiccups, but it ought not to be ignored any longer.
If we don’t act with haste, I worry that we will regret. We will regret the silent cradles, the playing children missing from our streets, and the untold brilliance of the future generation’s minds. I worry we will regret not baking a larger pie.
Josef Westberg ’27 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached out to at j.r.westberg@wustl.edu