Wall Street Warms to Trump

On January 15, 2024, the day of the Iowa Caucus, the world’s economic elite met to commence the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. As the polls closed, and former president Donald Trump emerged victorious, conversation turned to the possibility of a second Trump administration.

Prominent American business leaders attempted to dial down concern about the Republican frontrunner returning to the White House. One executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity to CNBC, allayed anxiety from overseas. He stated, “I’m not sure Europeans understand how weak executive orders are… We have a justice system. Congress will probably be divided. It’s right to be cautious, but it won’t be the end of the world.” 

Others spoke with less trepidation. One anonymous attendee, when asked about Trump, declared “he is all bark and no bite,” and dismissed Trump’s election denialism as “bloviation.”

The comments emanating from Davos are strikingly anachronistic. Before his term, it was conceivable that the office of the Presidency could tame Trump’s authoritarian impulses. But after four years of his administration, this sanguine theory has worn thin.

Trump’s “bark” about a ban on Muslim immigration was followed by “bite” via executive order. When the judiciary intervened, the Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court declared that the “Muslim ban,” as Trump himself called it, did not favor or disfavor any particular religion. And when the justice system impeded Trump, refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 election, he and his followers resorted to extrajudicial measures – more than mere bloviation.

Downplaying Trump’s record, and what his second administration could have in store, is as credulous as it is dangerous. Why, then, would so many of America’s business elite – presumably among the sharpest minds in our country – be so willing to ignore the former president’s malignity?

Downplaying Trump’s record, and what his second administration could have in store, is as credulous as it is dangerous.

Jamie Dimon may have the answer. Shirking the shroud of anonymity, the outspoken CEO of JPMorgan Chase appeared on CNBC in Davos to discuss the upcoming presidential election. Dimon lauded a number of Trump’s policies, including several of his most unconventional positions. He stated, “[Trump] was kind of right about NATO. He was kind of right about immigration, he grew the economy quite well… Tax reform worked.”

For a multimillionaire banker to praise Trump’s tax reforms, which cut rates disproportionately for corporations and the wealthy, is hardly surprising. As a longtime Democratic party donor, however, Dimon’s approval of Trump’s foreign and immigration policy signals a puzzling change of heart.

Dimon’s comments are a heel turn from just two months ago, when he helped form a Super PAC supporting Nikki Haley’s campaign. As the PAC launched, Dimon urged everyone, “even if you are a very liberal Democrat” to support Haley. He emphasized the need to “get a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump.”

The JP Morgan Chase executive is hardly alone. Billionaires from across the political spectrum – from the arch-conservative Charles Koch to liberal LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman – have poured money into Haley’s campaign. Even more backed Ron DeSantis in an effort to stymie Trump’s path to renomination. According to AdImpact, Trump’s competitors have spent over $200 million in the Republican primary, most of which has come from large donations.

Yet all this spending, easily exceeding Trump’s $51.7 million outlay, has yielded little return. The former president breezed to victory in Iowa and New Hampshire, becoming the first Republican non-incumbent to win both contests in the modern primary era.

Now, as Trump verges on becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, the anti-Trump bluster of Dimon and his peers is faltering. While Trump’s comments about being a “dictator” on “day one” should alarm executives, the frontrunner still has something to offer business elites. Amid plots to prosecute his political enemies, as reported by the Washington Post, Trump has privately signaled plans to cut corporate taxes again in his second term.

Davos attendees and their ilk are therefore left with a choice in 2024: They can seek stability in Joe Biden or chase the bottom line and roll the dice on Trump. The former offers a solid but uninspiring status quo: steady growth, cooling inflation, and predictable governance.

The latter is a black box. Will Trump double down on racial resentment, continuing to proclaim that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”? Would his administration seek vengeance? Will he make good on his promise to be dictator for a day – or longer? No model on Wall Street can claim to answer these questions. 

Instead, America’s business elites peer into the black box and see only what they want to: a fundamentally stable country, with institutions that can withstand Trump’s demagogic impulses – should they even exist. They choose to believe in tax cuts without consequences.

Will Gunter ‘25 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at gunter.w@wustl.edu.