In 2019, the U.S. Space Force became the country’s first new independent military service since the Army Air Forces were reorganized as the U.S. Air Force in 1947. The creation of the force was subject to jokes and memes about its purpose online, and even a Netflix show starring Steve Carell that premiered in 2020. Although seemingly comical at the time, it has become clear the U.S. Space Force will play a crucial role in any large-scale U.S. conflict. It operates numerous communication, surveillance, and missile detection satellites as well as orbital test spacecraft used to demonstrate new space technology. When Congress established the force, they wrote its mission was to, “provide freedom of operation for the United States in, from, and to space; conduct space operations; and protect the interests of the United States in space.” In a world that is increasingly built on satellites and their abilities to transmit data across the globe, this mission is significant.
Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world has seen just how important satellites are to warfare. They provide crucial reconnaissance photos that allow a nation to closely monitor where their enemy is moving their troops, where they are building up defenses, and more. In addition, Ukraine’s use of SpaceX satellites for communication angered Russia while greatly enhancing its ability to fly combat drones against their Russian opposition. A nation has never (as far as we know) blown up another nation’s satellite as an act of hostility, although some possess the capability to do so. The U.S., China, India, and Russia have all successfully carried out anti-satellite missile tests, destroying their own defunct satellites as a demonstration. In 2022 Russia conducted another one of these tests paired with a threat that Western satellites helping Ukraine could be a legitimate target for a strike. Russia’s threat has yet to come to fruition, likely because of how escalatory it would be, yet it is a reminder of how important to the war effort satellites have become.
Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world has seen just how important satellites are to warfare.
The international law governing much of what happens in space is based on the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. In terms of rules on military forces in space, the treaty prohibits the placement of military bases and weapons of mass destruction on celestial bodies or floating in space but does not specifically prohibit conventional weapons. Additionally, anti-satellite weaponry is not internationally illegal, but the U.S. (which hasn’t tested the technology since 2008) and some other countries have advocated to stop the testing of the weaponry. They argue that the destruction of satellites creates a large amount of space debris that often runs the risk of damaging other satellites and space stations as it hurls out of control. However, if a conflict were to arise it is unlikely countries would prioritize keeping space clean over attacking their adversary. It is unclear if the U.S. has an effective way to stop an attack on its satellites if such a thing were to occur. However, a large-scale destruction of satellites would likely not be advantageous to anyone because of the collateral damage that would take place. Either way, the U.S. Space Force would at the very least be a deterrence against satellite destruction in any future conflicts, as the world knows the U.S. has the means to carry out a retaliatory strike themselves.
If a conflict were to arise it is unlikely countries would prioritize keeping space clean over attacking their adversary
At the same time, the growing prominence of civilian companies putting satellites into space means that targeting individual satellites will become less and less fruitful. For example, SpaceX currently operates over 5000 Starlink satellites providing internet to people around the world, including to the military in Ukraine. Because of the vast quantity, it would potentially take hundreds of attacks on the satellites before an impact was felt by the people using it on the ground, making it a less attractive option for hampering Ukraine’s ability to operate. Although less so, this is also true in the military realm, as countries such as the U.S., China, and Russia continue to launch new military/governmental satellites every year. At the same time, reliance on private companies for military operations is risky. It has been reported that Elon Musk has chosen to not activate Starlink in certain Ukraine conflict regions, giving him a dangerous amount of power in the war. Overall, future conflicts may include attacks on enemy satellites or they may not, but either way, the importance of space to those conflicts cannot be understated, particularly as satellites increasingly hold the tech of the future. The U.S. Space Force should be taken more seriously than it currently is given the outsized role it plays in protecting military and civilian infrastructure.
Weldon Smith ‘27 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at s.weldon@wustl.edu.