The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Texas was in 1988. That could very well change in 2026. The Democratic primary race between Texas State Representative James Talarico and Representative Jasmine Crockett has captured the attention of the masses, and for good reason. While we are still far out, polling data from Emerson College seems to indicate that both Democratic candidates are only down by a few points in pairwise matchups against their possible Republican competitors, giving Democrats a fighting chance at flipping the seat. One Texas district saw a massive flip recently, largely a result of Hispanic voters in Texas moving left since Trump’s election. This upset falls in line with a pattern of special election results shifting in favor of Democrats nationwide since Trump took office. Could Texas go purple?
Both Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico have cultivated a massive audience and significant name recognition. U.S. Representative Crockett has gone viral on social media numerous times, consistently coming off as fiery, ready for action and, at times, controversial. She has amassed a following of over 2.2 million followers on TikTok, for example, and enjoys a recognition advantage over her competitor, according to a Texas Southern poll. Talarico, a member of the Texas House, has really sprung into the public consciousness as well. Appearing on popular YouTube channel Jubilee, Ezra Klein, Joe Rogan and even in a Super Bowl ad, Talarico has taken intentional steps to ramp up his name recognition in light of the popularity of his competitor. His unique style, populist-flavored rhetoric and the public centrality of his Christian faith as a Democrat set him radically apart from traditional Democratic candidates.
Because of the available data and his less partisan approach, many see Talarico as the more electable candidate. Others, including Crockett herself, have accused this claim of racist underpinnings.
On January 24th, Crockett and Talarico went head-to-head in their first debate. Crockett appeared sharp and ready to challenge established norms, while Talarico was focused on coalition-building and finding unity on key issues. As of January 2026, Emerson College polling suggests a substantial lead for Talarico over Crockett, up by nine points in the primary. According to said poll, Talarico performs better than Crockett against potential Republican opponents such as incumbent John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt, and equally well against Attorney General Ken Paxton. Online betting platform PolyMarket has Talarico significantly ahead of Crockett in the Democratic primary. Because of the available data and his less partisan approach, many see Talarico as the more electable candidate. Others, including Crockett herself, have accused this claim of racist underpinnings.
With the Democratic primary being on March 3rd, where is each candidate polling strongest? Jasmine Crockett enjoys a significant advantage over Talarico in support from Black voters. Additionally, she does better among older voters. To make her case for moving on to the general election, she will need to demonstrate that she can seriously mobilize Black voters more than her competitor, many of whom swung right in the 2024 election. Talarico, on the other hand, has done better with White and Hispanic voters. With such a large Hispanic population in Texas that is politically motivated in light of the Trump administration’s controversial immigration policies, Talarico may have a substantial edge here. He will need to demonstrate that he is committed to Hispanic constituents without alienating the moderate and Independent voters he continues to appeal to with his “top vs. bottom, not left vs. right” messaging strategy.
Tensions between the two campaigns seem to be growing. Despite the relative amiability of the debate, it cannot be denied that Crockett threw some jabs onstage. Additionally, insider Jason Lee notes that Crockett is planning to begin spending money on an attack-ad campaign. Perhaps most striking is the recent allegation made by a TikTok creator that Talarico called former Representative Colin Allred a “mediocre Black man.” Talarico adamantly maintains that this is a misconstrual and that he actually said that Allred’s campaign was mediocre relative to Crockett’s. Democratic infighting will likely only increase between now and the election, but how much this will harm Democrats’ chances at winning in November remains to be seen.
However, if Democrats play their cards right, this race could be the biggest upset of 2026.
With the recent leak of an internal National Republican Senatorial Committee poll showing Talarico up by 3 points against Paxton, many Democrats celebrate an amazing opportunity to potentially flip the seat. In truth, the candidate who proceeds from the primary on both sides of the aisle will play the most influential role in what happens come November. Republicans stand a better chance at retaining the seat if they put forward incumbent John Cornyn, but many Republican Texans seem to be interested in a more conservative candidate like Attorney General Paxton. At this stage, the data indicate that Talarico has a better shot at victory than Crockett come November, but everything hinges on how each candidate will balance mobilizing their base and appealing to swing voters. Frankly, it’s a long shot. However, if Democrats play their cards right, this race could be the biggest upset of 2026.
Josef Westberg ‘27 studies in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at j.r.westberg@wustl.edu.